Texas A&M Football: 3 takeaways from the ugly loss to Appalachian State

Well, that was no fun at all. I’m a glass half full kind of guy. I like to see the bright side of things. I tend to have faith in the team until proven otherwise. What we saw on Saturday was a “proven otherwise” type of performance from Texas A&M football.

Give credit to Appalachian State. They had a good gameplan coming in — limiting your opponent’s offensive possessions creates the maximum amount of variance in outcome, something pivotal for a team trying to pull a big upset— and their experience-laden team out-executed a younger Aggie squad.

But questions still abound regarding not only the play of the Aggies, but the plan of the A&M coaches and staff as well.  How could they have looked so unprepared? Where were the adjustments to App’s gameplan as it became clearer and clearer?

I wish those were questions we didn’t have to ask. But the score has gone final, so now all we can ask is what we can take away and how the team moves forward. Let’s dive in.

Depleted defense doesn’t pass muster

Coming into the day, we knew that Andre White was injured and wouldn’t be playing. As warmups began, we heard that Walter Nolen and McKinnley Jackson wouldn’t be available either. At various times throughout the day, Tunmise Adeleye, Tarian Lee, and Isaiah Raikes all went down with injuries (though, unless I’m mistaken, they each returned to the game). These losses softened the middle of what was thought to be a deep defensive line group but a very thin linebacker corps.

All that said, there was no excuse for the Aggie defense’s inability to get off the field against the Mountaineers. Even though App finished with only a 9-20 mark on 3rd down conversions (better than A&M’s 2-8 mark, at least), it seemed as though they kept extending drives over and over, never giving the Aggie offense the chance to pull ahead or even draw level on the scoreboard. This was due in part to a couple of 1sts picked up on the ground after facing 3rd and long, and App going 3-5 on 4th down (one of those failed conversions being the final play of the game).

Would Nolen, Jackson, and White have made a difference in App’s success in the run game?  Maybe. At the very least, they would’ve provided needed depth on a day in which the Aggie defense was on the field for almost three quarters of the game (a 41:29 to 18:17 split), becoming slowly more and more gassed as the 4th quarter approached.

This was one of the most lopsided TOP splits I’ve seen since the Aggies played Tennessee in 2020 (a 44:09 to 15:51 split). App State’s plan of playing complementary football paid off in a big way for them — tiring out the Aggie defense as their OL (a Joe Moore award-finalist unit last year) continued to lean on the A&M front, denying the ineffective Aggie offense a chance to get in any sort of rhythm.

Special Teams giveth and taketh away

One of the few bright spots in the game was the performance of Devon Achane. He looked much more like himself in the still-too-few opportunities he was given against App as compared to Sam Houston. After the Mountaineers scored to go up 14-7, he showcased his ability in a 95-yard kickoff return touchdown that jazzed up the whole stadium and sideline.

However, this also put an already-tired Aggie defense that had just given up a long TD drive right back on the field, further contributing to the TOP and play number disparity. App took full advantage of this, driving 63 yards in 18 plays to kick what proved to be the game-winning field goal. This drive not only spanned from 2:08 in the 3Q to 8:05 in the 4Q (9:15 of game time), but it included 4 3rd-down conversions — just a complete gut-kick when it felt like the momentum could’ve swung right back in A&M’s favor.

And then there’s Caden Davis’s FG attempt. We’ve been hearing all offseason and camp about the young man’s ability and accuracy. I don’t doubt that he possesses both, but, whether due to nerves or whatever else, the kick fell far short in a fitting metaphor for the entire team’s performance on the day. The miss ended up dooming the team, as the Mountaineers would run out the clock on their next drive.

The upshot of all this is what you’ve heard me say several times already – App came in with the perfect gameplan for an upset, and they were aided not only by their execution but by the Aggies’ lack of execution. They played perfect complementary football on a day where A&M played right into their hands.

Texas A&M football moving forward

Understandably, after a loss like this, there’s been a lot of doom and gloom among Aggie fans. I’ve seen predictions that the team will be 1-5 following the Alabama game. That, for me, is a bridge too far at the moment. Let me explain why.

For as bad and as frustrating as the game felt, the results were not extremely predictive. As I’ve said, App had a perfect game plan — but it was one that is completely unsustainable over a larger sample size.

According to Bill Connelly of ESPN, App had the second-lowest post-game win expectancy of the week and third-lowest of the year at only 23%. In other words, if the exact same performances are put up by each team, the Mountaineers only win about one out of every four times.

This can be shown in the per-play numbers by each team. App averaged 4.5 YPA in the pass game to A&M’s 4.9 (both low, but I don’t think many of us felt that A&M would’ve been favored there), and only 3.5 per rush compared to A&M’s 4.9. This latter number for App is even bolstered by the final 48-yard rush that put the game away when A&M sold out up the middle – with that removed, the Mountaineers only had 2.6 YPC. It will also be very seldom that a team ends up with only 38 plays against 82 plays — this was A&M’s lowest total in a game since 1945, per Travis Brown. 

This, incidentally, is why I’ve not discussed the offensive issues — though there were plenty — this game was just not large enough of a sample size to draw too many conclusions yet. According to Parker on Twitter,  the net success rate margin — a metric that accounts for efficiency, factoring in down and distance — actually favored the Aggies. In fact, it ended up the biggest margin in a loss of the whole week.

To be clear: this is not to sugarcoat this loss. It was undoubtedly a setback, and a big one at that.  But to be forward-facing here, the season is not lost.  =We’ve seen A&M teams under Jimbo bounce back from terrible one-week performances before – 2020 Vandy, 2019 Clemson, 2021 Colorado — it’s just that this one manifested in such a way as to result in an embarrassing loss for the program.

The Aggies could still (and, according to the updated SP+, somehow should still) beat Miami, Arkansas, and Mississippi State. A 10-2 record isn’t out of reach — even an 11-1 record, if we’re being technical. But those things seem so far out of the realm of possibility right now due to what we’ve just witnessed.

We already know this team has all the talent in the world; right now, they need some heart and some leadership. I have faith in guys like Ainias, Antonio, and Devon. Bryce Foster should return this week to help bolster the OL play..

There are reasons for hope. The season is not lost, yet. This team needs to get some things figured out in short order, but they have the ability to do so. Whether they will is another question— one for which the answer is due more quickly than any of us would like, with the Miami Hurricanes rolling into town next weekend.