This the second article in a series previewing the 2023 football opponents for Texas A&M Football. Click here for last week’s article.
Last year’s matchup between the Miami Hurricanes and Texas A&M football in week 3 was—believe it or not—a top-25 game. It aired on ESPN in prime time, with Chris Fowler and Kirk Herbstreit making their first announcing appearance in College Station since the 2014 Ole Miss game.
As we now know, though, both teams would end with tumultuous seasons, quarterback questions, and 5-7 records. This was quite the letdown for what was one of the more hyped non-conference matchups of the offseason.
This year, however, could be far different. Both the Hurricanes and Aggies are trendy picks to bounce back from poor 2022 campaigns. The 2022 Texas A&M football recruiting class began to come into their own at the end of the previous year. For the Hurricanes, a returning Tyler Van Dyke brings with him the promise of elevated quarterback play, and head coach Mario Cristobal’s own recruiting acumen looks to begin paying dividends in Coral Gables sooner rather than later. Aggie fans are aware of Texas A&M’s recruiting struggles and successes in the 2023 class, but, for their part, Miami netted two five-star offensive lineman in that cycle to help shore up their unit up front—addressing one of their top needs coming into this year.
Texas A&M Football Matchup History vs. Miami
To refresh the memory of Texas A&M football fans, last year’s game was a defensive slog that ultimately ended with a score of 17-9 in favor of A&M. The Aggies controlled most of the game, going up 17-3 at the beginning of the second half, but struggled scoring for most of Max Johnson’s first start in the Maroon and White. This was also a game for which the Aggies were without Denver Harris, Smoke Bouie, Chris Marshall, and Evan Stewart following a suspension that was announced only hours before kickoff. Of course, only Stewart remains of those four—with Harris and Marshall garnering a second suspension that lasted the whole second half of the season. Devon Achane and Ainias Smith made up most of the Aggie offense on that night, and DJ Durkin’s unit made life hard on Tyler Van Dyke. If the young freshmen in the A&M secondary had had better hands on that night, it would have been a multiple-turnover evening for Van Dyke.
The two programs have had little on-field history in the whole scheme of things. They first played in 1944, when the Aggies won by a margin of 70-14. They would not play again until a home-and-home in 2007 and 2008—Miami won both games. The winner of this upcoming matchup will go up 3-2 in the all-time series.
With all that said, let’s take a look at what 2022 looked like for Miami. They opened strong with an impressive-looking win over outmatched Bethune-Cookman, putting up 70 points. They looked far less impressive the next week, notching a 30-7 win over Southern Miss that was closer than many Hurricane fans would have liked. Week 3, of course, saw Miami lose at Kyle Field. The following week, however, was the lowlight of the Hurricanes’ season, losing 39-25 to Middle Tennessee State. Things spiraled from there, culminating in a lowly 5-win total for the Hurricanes, including back-to-back losses to Clemson and Pitt with a bowl game on the line.
Though the Aggies had an identical record to the Hurricanes in 2022, the numbers told very different stories about each team. Let’s start with the SP+ numbers and then take a look at the more specific metrics. The Aggies closed the year with a 10.1 rating, good for 35th overall. They were the highest rated team with five wins or fewer in the nation—faint praise, but relevant for this comparison. They finished two spots higher than nine-win Notre Dame and four spots higher than nine-win Pittsburgh. The Hurricanes, on the other hand, finished with a -2.2 rating and 74th overall.
As poor as the Aggie offense was last year, Miami’s was worse per Bill Connelly’s numbers—Texas A&M football had an offensive rating of 25.4 (72nd in the nation) while Miami had an offensive rating of 24.8 (77th in the nation). The real difference between the two was in defensive quality—the Aggies had a defensive rating of 15.6 (18th overall) and the Hurricanes had a defensive rating of 28.7 (74th overall).
The defensive quality of each team helps tell the story a bit here as far as the disparity in rating between the two. Digging in a little bit more with some of my own numbers, I found a couple of interesting notes. Texas A&M football ended with poor offensive numbers across the board, as most Aggie fans might suspect. One number I tracked throughout the season was points per play, hoping to measure overall scoring efficiency, and adjusting that number for opponent quality. For the year, the Aggies’ adjusted offensive points per play was 0.342 (for context, this was the third-worst mark in the SEC). Miami’s number for the season was a mere 0.263. This was worse than even Vanderbilt’s.
The Aggies averaged 86.91% of opponent offensive points per play allowed, while Miami averaged only 76.88% of the same number—neither were stellar marks, but the Aggies were substantively better with regard to opponent-adjusted scoring efficiency. On a yardage basis, the numbers look similarly dour for the Hurricanes. They only averaged 90.44% of opponent yards per attempt allowed and 81.12% of opponent yards per carry allowed. So not only could the Hurricanes not score efficiently, they were poor at gaining yardage as well. The Aggies averaged 92.71% of opponent yards per attempt allowed and 109.23% of opponent yards per carry allowed.
Turning now to the defensive mirrors of the aforementioned numbers, the disparity is shown in even sharper relief. The Aggies allowed an adjusted points per play number of 0.258. This was the third-best number in the SEC behind Alabama and Georgia, so for all the grousing about DJ Durkin’s defense, that unit performed far above expectations when it came to keeping opponents out of the end zone. Miami, on the other hand, allowed 0.399 adjusted points per play (this would have been good for 13th in the SEC).
When facing Miami, teams tended to exceed their own average scoring efficiency by just a touch—the Hurricanes allowed 106.47% of opponent average points per play. Texas A&M, on the other hand, held opponents well below their average scoring efficiency, allowing only 68.43% of opponent average points per play—only Mississippi State and Florida exceeded their season averages against Texas A&M football. Miami featured a porous pass defense for most of the season, allowing 120.55% of opponent passing averages on a per-attempt basis, including a horrendous 242.56% against Middle Tennessee, who hit long shot after long shot against the Hurricanes. Their rushing defense was a bit better, holding opponents to 93.27% of their averages on a per-carry basis—though this tailed off towards the end of the season, when Georgia Tech and Pitt (two of the Hurricanes final three opponents) far exceeded their season averages. The Aggies, as many Texas A&M football fans might sense, had the converse issue. They were a bit more stingy through the air—allowing 92.71% of opponent averages on a per-attempt basis—but struggled in run defense, allowing 105.39% of opponent averages on a per-carry basis.
Though these two teams ended with the same record, these are massively different statistical profiles, which are reflected in Connelly’s overall SP+ ratings. So how do they compare going into 2023? Let’s look at that next.
To get a baseline for these teams, let’s look again at Connelly’s rating system. In his most recent preseason rankings, the Aggies came in 17th, with a 16.9 overall rating, while the Hurricanes were 42nd with an 8.9 overall rating. Texas A&M football projects to have an offensive rating of 29.7 (good for 51st in the nation) and a defensive rating of 12.8 (good for 3rd in the nation). Miami projects to have an offensive rating of 29.0 (55th) and a defensive rating of 20.1 (20th).
If Connelly is on the ball with his projections—as he tends to be, more often than not—then we could be looking at a defensive slugfest in Coral Gables come September 9. Those kinds of games lend themselves to higher variance in outcome, as a busted coverage here or there could be the difference in the game.
The wildcard here, as will be a theme in these previews, is the interplay between Jimbo, Weigman, and Petrino. Could that third man in the mix lead to a higher level of offensive execution than preseason projections see for Texas A&M football? I’m personally bullish on that prospect. The emergence of one (or more!) of Moss, Daniels, or Owens at the running back spot, improved line play due to returning experience, and wide receiver talent that the Aggies bring into 2023 will give Petrino no shortage of options—and, importantly, options with a large number of snaps under their belts, which the Aggies sorely lacked in 2022.
Miami themselves have reasons to be excited as regards their coaching ranks. The Hurricanes will be fielding new offensive and defensive coordinators this year, bringing in Shannon Dawson from Houston as OC and Lance Guidry from Marshall as DC. That said, however, I think Durkin excels at shutting down high-flying, sling-it-around offenses of the style that Dawson will be rolling out. This will be only Guidry’s second game at the controls of a major program’s defense, and, while his star is rising, the experience on the Aggie staff gives Texas A&M the advantage.
Give me the Aggies winning this one. Miami’s home field advantage isn’t anything to write home about, and I think the Aggie defense will come up big. I wouldn’t be surprised to see an offensive talent or two announce himself to the nation during this contest, either. It might be close for a while, but I think A&M will pull away in the second half—let’s say 31-13 Aggies.