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NFL Draft: 28 of the 95 Early Entrants Go Undrafted

By Matthew Bartlett

Oct 8, 2016; College Station, TX, USA; Texas A&M Aggies wide receiver Speedy Noil (2) in action during the game against the Tennessee Volunteers at Kyle Field. The Aggies defeat the Volunteers 45-38 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 8, 2016; College Station, TX, USA; Texas A&M Aggies wide receiver Speedy Noil (2) in action during the game against the Tennessee Volunteers at Kyle Field. The Aggies defeat the Volunteers 45-38 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports /
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When is leaving school early a good decision? 28 of the 95 juniors that chose to forgo their senior year were not selected in the 2017 NFL Draft.

Two notable omissions from the later rounds of the NFL Draft were Texas A&M wide receivers Ricky Seals-Jones and Speedy Noil. However, they weren’t the only two juniors that were left in the dark on the last day of the NFL Draft. In total 28 early entrants went undrafted. That list includes some guys with productive college careers:

Related Story: Four Aggies Look to Sign as Undrafted Free Agents

Why Do Fringe Prospects Leave Early?

Injuries

The injury of Notre Dame’s Jaylon Smith in the 2016 Fiesta Bowl is a perfect example of the “worst case scenario” for a draft prospect. In a game that ultimately didn’t have championship implications, Smith’s draft stock plummeted in minutes.

Injuries are unpredictable. After Smith’s injury we saw stars like Fournette and Christian McCaffery sit out bowl games. Leaving early to avoid a potential career-threatening injury is a legitimate decision.

Draft Stock

An individual’s draft stock can vary wildly from season to season. For those who aren’t blue chip prospects, their goal should be to leave school with the highest draft stock possible. The impact of a bad senior season can be troublesome.

Sometimes that final season is subject to factors beyond a prospects’ control. Position battles, coaching staff changes, and the next draft class all play a roll in the optimal departure year. The truth is the future brings a lot of unknowns that won’t always work in a particular prospect’s favor.

Money

The league minimum salary in the NFL is $465,000. That’s a far cry from what the stars are making, but it’s not chump change. When you combine draft stock concerns and the risk of injury, even the chance at making the league minimum is enticing. Undrafted free agents are only going to make somewhere around $15,000 to $40,000 when they sign, so the drop off is significant. If you make it into training camp the sole focus becomes making the team.

Did These Guys Make the Wrong Decision?

Not necessarily. The decision to leave college and test the NFL Draft waters is not one that is taken lightly. Many of these draft hopefuls had serious conversations with their coaches and trusted advisers prior to making their decision. The NFL College Advisory Committee provides draft grades and advice to juniors trying to make this difficult decision.

For guys like Myles Garrett and Leonard Fournette, the decision to leave early was a no-brainer. Beyond the obvious first rounders, there’s a lot more gray than there is black and white. Draft grades aren’t a perfect science. Since 2015, 73 players that received a “remain-in-school” combined to average a fifth round selection. 27.4 percent of those such players went undrafted.

Next: Which teams make the most sense for SEC expansion?

There are no sure things in life. The NFL is no different than any other job selection process. At the end of the day every prospect has to make the decision they think is best for them. For 28 guys that decision didn’t pan out the way they had hoped. Many have already signed on with NFL teams as free agents. Time will tell which players will see their NFL dreams realized.

***Player list from CBS Sports. Draft Grades from NFL.com***