Auburn won’t go off on third down
When you dive into the Texas A&M game against Mississippi State, it’s maddening. The Aggies went into that contest the best team in the country at getting off the field on third down, and yet Mississippi State went 7-for-12 and had the biggest plays of the game on third down.
They scored a 25-yard touchdown on 3rd-and-12, a 38-yard touchdown on 3rd-and-11, and hit an 84-yard play on 3rd-and-21 that set up a 1-yard touchdown run. The probability of converting one of these, much less all three, is not high even against bad defenses. It was an anomaly and would probably happen five times if this game is played 100 times.
You can’t expect that kind of success to happen twice in a row. A&M might give up some big plays, as they’ve done all season, but for them to happen in a similar scenario to the Mississippi State game would feel like the football Gods are toying with the Aggies.
This defense will bounce back, especially on third down. The offense will bounce back, especially in the red zone. Jimbo Fisher will bounce back and guide the Aggies to victory.