Texas A&M football: Unpacking this prediction offense will be worse in ’19

Most believe Texas A&M football’s offense will be just as good if not better in 2019, but one website is erring on the side of caution…for some reason.

Texas A&M football finished the 2018 season with one of the best offenses despite entering the year with inexperience or questions at quarterback, offensive line and wide receiver — basically everyone but Trayveon Williams.

Kellen Mond started a few games as a true freshman, but he was wiping the slate clean with Jimbo Fisher’s new offense. The offensive line had some experience but many wondered if they had the talent given the unit’s struggles in previous seasons. Wide receiver was a bunch of true or redshirt sophomores, and only Jhamon Ausbon had seen significant playing time in 2017.

Nevertheless, Fisher’s first season went off without a hitch. The Aggies were No. 15 in total offense (471.6 yards per game) and No. 19 in scoring (36 points per game). They thrived behind a dominant rushing attack and Mond making plays with both his arm and his legs.

While they suffered some losses on offense — Eric McCoy, Trayveon Williams, Jace Sternberger — they are set up to replace all of them with experience or potential. This didn’t stop Saturday Down South from predicting the Aggie offense to decline in 2019.

There’s a lot to unpack here, so let’s get started.

The writer says the Aggie passing offense will be worse in 2019 despite returning its quarterback, every single receiver who caught a pass in 2018 (not hyperbole…literally every wide receiver), and essentially four of five offensive linemen.

(Four of the five offensive line starters in 2019 will have played significant snaps in 2018. All but Ryan McCollum were starters last year and he was forced into action due to injury)

Anyone with eyeballs could see the difference in Mond from year one to year two. It only makes sense, then, that Mond would improve from year two to year three, and his second year with Fisher. What are we missing?

Tight end is the biggest loss Fisher will have to deal with. Losing Sternberger is obviously not ideal, but the Aggies are equipped to replace him with Glenn Beal, a 3-star prospect from the 2018 class, and Baylor Cupp, the top-rated tight end in the 2019 class.

The writer then spends about one-third of the passing offense blurb discussing the loss of backup quarterback Nick Starkel and his negative affect on the offense.

Hopefully I didn’t lose you there, but I wouldn’t blame you if you bounced. Pretty much every team in the country would get worse on offense if their starting quarterback got hurt.

I won’t quabble with the points about the run offense being worse — there is a good chance this is actually the case. Losing Williams sucks. However, it’s not all bad. With returning experience on the offensive line and two 4-star running backs leading the way, the rushing offense may actually not miss a beat.

(He did mention Vernon Jackson in the blurb about the running game. Jackson’s 2019 season is very much in doubt due to his neck injury suffered in spring ball. So, take his word for what you will)

Whatever perceived difference in the running game from last year should be more than made up by a matured Mond, all but one of his weapons returning and a better offensive line in 2019, at least at pass blocking.

The only possible explanation, though it’s nowhere to be found in the article, is if he’s saying the Aggies will not rank as high statistically due to their ridiculous schedule. An offense ranked lower in 2019 compared to 2018 is an actual possibility in that regard, not to mention the general fluctuation in college football statistics given the sheer number of teams in the FBS.

It’s an interesting take, to say the least. Most believe an offense goes as the quarterback takes it, and most believe Mond will be better in 2019. Time will certainly tell.