No. 1: Mississippi State has to lose another game
There will be plenty of opportunities for Mississippi State to lose this season. I am not extremely worried about this one, but it needs to happen if the Aggies want a chance to go to Atlanta.
Mississippi State has proven time and time again they are very inconsistent. That said, when they are on, they can compete with a good portion of the country — when they are off they struggle or will lose to Group of 5 teams.
Their end schedule is a little tough. They should route Vanderbilt and Tennessee State but they will have a tough Kentucky coming to Starksville next week then have back-to-back games in Fayetville to play Arkansas then travel to Auburn to play the Tigers. If they survive that, they have to play in the Egg Bowl.
At some point, they should drop another game or this would be a very impressive stretch.
Chances of it happening?: 99.99%