Texas A&M football’s projected win total makes no sense

College football is anything but predictable — the Texas A&M football team in 2022 might be the epitome of this concept. Every Aggie football season under Jimbo Fisher has been wildly unpredictable, as the Aggies have finished nine or more spots off from their preseason ranking in each of the past four years.

Will the 2022 season be different?

As things stand, the Texas A&M football team is hovering around the top ten in most way-too-early preseason college football rankings. Some have the Aggies as high as second in the nation, though the general landing spot for Texas A&M is around the fifth or sixth spots.

247Sports’ projected win total for the Texas A&M football team doesn’t make any sense

This week, 247Sports released Bud Elliot’s projected win totals for all SEC teams. Around the top, you’ll see obvious teams like Alabama and Georgia, while the bottom of the list hosts teams like South Carolina and Vanderbilt. Here’s the full list.

Aggie fans will alert their eyes directly at the top of the list, though one of the more surprising choices on this list is Auburn’s placement. The Tigers find themselves second-to-last, only leading Auburn with six wins.

Texas A&M football fans, however, will be more preoccupied with their win total, which lands at nine. Upon first glance, it’s not entirely unreasonable. In fact, you’ll likely find the Aggies somewhere between an 8-10 win total on virtually every projection you’ll see. Elliot’s list makes sense but the system does not.

Immediately following the season, 247Sports released their projected top-25, which listed the Aggies as the fourth-ranked team in the country. They did still trail Georgia and Alabama, who held the third and first spots, respectively. This does not sit right with me.

If Texas A&M finishes the year with nine wins, how could they be anywhere near the top five in any poll? For perspective, the highest nine-loss regular-season team in the final AP Poll was Clemson, which finished 14th after winning its bowl game, which sent them to 10 wins. Texas A&M will not be a top-five team and finish with nine wins.

In my eyes, you could have three teams with eleven wins in 2022. Here’s why.

Texas A&M should be favored in every one of its games outside of an October 8th matchup against Alabama in Tuscaloosa. If they win out and lose to only ‘Bama, that gives Texas A&M 11 wins. If Alabama wins out and loses to Texas A&M, that would land them at 11 wins.

The Aggies proved in 2021 that they were capable of beating the Crimson Tide, even if they were extremely shorthanded on both sides of the ball. This contest will be a clash between two giants in the SEC West.

This could be a defining season for SEC football.