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Texas A&M Football: Breaking down ESPN’s SP+ rating for the Aggies

By Graham Harmon

Seth Small, Texas A&M football (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)
Seth Small, Texas A&M football (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images) /
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Oct 23, 2021; College Station, Texas, USA; Texas A&M Aggies running back Devon Achane (6) runs the ball during the third quarter against the South Carolina Gamecocks at Kyle Field. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 23, 2021; College Station, Texas, USA; Texas A&M Aggies running back Devon Achane (6) runs the ball during the third quarter against the South Carolina Gamecocks at Kyle Field. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-USA TODAY Sports /

2. The Texas A&M offense is currently underrated

Offensively speaking, you can see that the Aggies’s ranking reduced from 33.1 at the end of 2021 to 32.2 now.  This is where I’d personally have to depart from the rankings. This obviously doesn’t account for the fact that A&M should have better QB play this year.

It only sees that such-and-such percentage of their passing yards are returning, which obviously, with Calzada transferring and Haynes only having one game and mop-up duty under his belt, would be a vanishingly little.  In addition, the Aggies lose Demond Demas and Caleb Chapman at the WR spots, Jalen Wydermyer at TE, and Isaiah Spiller as well.  That’s a decent chunk of receiving yards (close to 40%) and the majority of the rushing yards.

Luckily, Devon Achane has proven, even in a backup role, that he’s more than up to the task of carrying the load at RB — his explosiveness should shine in a featured role. Ainias Smith coming back and Chase Lane returning from an injury-plagued 2021 campaign provides experience at the WR position as well.

Meanwhile, I think we’re all counting on freshman Evan Stewart to light things up as soon as he steps foot on the field.  This projection is less data-driven and more just what I’ve concluded, but when your QB ranks 115th in EPA but you still have the 35th-ranked offense overall, even average QB play should rocket you up to a much better mark.