Texas A&M Football: Breaking down ESPN’s SP+ rating for the Aggies

Seth Small, Texas A&M football (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)
Seth Small, Texas A&M football (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images) /
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Texas A&M Football
Ainias Smith, Texas A&M Football Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports /

5. Texas A&M football’s win projections

According to the preseason ratings, the Aggies currently project to end up with 8.0 wins.  Now before everyone gets their pitchforks out, let me say this: this is just a statistical average!  The highest projected wins in the whole ranking are 10.6 for Georgia and 10.5 for Alabama, who are projected to have 6.8 and 6.7 conference wins, respectively. I don’t think many people are projecting Alabama or Georgia at 10-2 overall and 6-2 in conference, but this method of calculating wins would say they’re closer to those marks than they are to being undefeated.

That number is also based on a rating that has yet to factor in one of A&M’s strongest areas (special teams) and, as I explained above, currently is (understandably!) underrating the offense.  As A&M wins games, the variance in outcome will decrease and the preseason projections will phase out, causing that number to climb higher and higher.

Well, I’ve spilled a lot of digital ink here in my first ever piece for this site on how I see the numbers and what they mean for the Aggies – now I’d like to hear your take! Leave a comment down below with how you think A&M will fare record-wise. Thanks for reading!

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