Texas A&M Football: 3 takeaways from the ugly loss to Appalachian State

Texas A&M football moving forward

Understandably, after a loss like this, there’s been a lot of doom and gloom among Aggie fans. I’ve seen predictions that the team will be 1-5 following the Alabama game. That, for me, is a bridge too far at the moment. Let me explain why.

For as bad and as frustrating as the game felt, the results were not extremely predictive. As I’ve said, App had a perfect game plan — but it was one that is completely unsustainable over a larger sample size.

According to Bill Connelly of ESPN, App had the second-lowest post-game win expectancy of the week and third-lowest of the year at only 23%. In other words, if the exact same performances are put up by each team, the Mountaineers only win about one out of every four times.

This can be shown in the per-play numbers by each team. App averaged 4.5 YPA in the pass game to A&M’s 4.9 (both low, but I don’t think many of us felt that A&M would’ve been favored there), and only 3.5 per rush compared to A&M’s 4.9. This latter number for App is even bolstered by the final 48-yard rush that put the game away when A&M sold out up the middle – with that removed, the Mountaineers only had 2.6 YPC. It will also be very seldom that a team ends up with only 38 plays against 82 plays — this was A&M’s lowest total in a game since 1945, per Travis Brown. 

This, incidentally, is why I’ve not discussed the offensive issues — though there were plenty — this game was just not large enough of a sample size to draw too many conclusions yet. According to Parker on Twitter,  the net success rate margin — a metric that accounts for efficiency, factoring in down and distance — actually favored the Aggies. In fact, it ended up the biggest margin in a loss of the whole week.

To be clear: this is not to sugarcoat this loss. It was undoubtedly a setback, and a big one at that.  But to be forward-facing here, the season is not lost.  =We’ve seen A&M teams under Jimbo bounce back from terrible one-week performances before – 2020 Vandy, 2019 Clemson, 2021 Colorado — it’s just that this one manifested in such a way as to result in an embarrassing loss for the program.

The Aggies could still (and, according to the updated SP+, somehow should still) beat Miami, Arkansas, and Mississippi State. A 10-2 record isn’t out of reach — even an 11-1 record, if we’re being technical. But those things seem so far out of the realm of possibility right now due to what we’ve just witnessed.

We already know this team has all the talent in the world; right now, they need some heart and some leadership. I have faith in guys like Ainias, Antonio, and Devon. Bryce Foster should return this week to help bolster the OL play..

There are reasons for hope. The season is not lost, yet. This team needs to get some things figured out in short order, but they have the ability to do so. Whether they will is another question— one for which the answer is due more quickly than any of us would like, with the Miami Hurricanes rolling into town next weekend.