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Texas A&M Football: Post-Miami edition of Tired vs. Wired

ByGraham Harmon|
Sep 17, 2022; College Station, Texas, USA; Texas A&M Aggies running back Devon Achane (6) scores a touchdown against the Miami Hurricanes as wide receiver Ainias Smith (0) and wide receiver Devin Price (3) celebrate in the end zone during the second half at Kyle Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 17, 2022; College Station, Texas, USA; Texas A&M Aggies running back Devon Achane (6) scores a touchdown against the Miami Hurricanes as wide receiver Ainias Smith (0) and wide receiver Devin Price (3) celebrate in the end zone during the second half at Kyle Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
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Sep 10, 2022; Fayetteville, Arkansas, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks quarterback KJ Jefferson (1) rushes in the fourth quarter against the South Carolina Gamecocks at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium. Arkansas won 44-30. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 10, 2022; Fayetteville, Arkansas, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks quarterback KJ Jefferson (1) rushes in the fourth quarter against the South Carolina Gamecocks at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium. Arkansas won 44-30. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

Take: Texas A&M football should not be favored against Arkansas

I’ve been hearing a lot of this from different corners— even from Aggie fans. People tend to be a bit confounded on why the #23 Aggies, not far removed from an ugly loss, should be favored over the #10 Razorbacks. After all, Arkansas beat a ranked team in Cincinnati, and another Power 5 team in South Carolina. Sure, they struggled with Missouri State, but at least they won, right? So why the 2.5 point spread in A&M’s favor?

I’m no betting expert, but here’s the perspective I take on things.  I agree with the point that Josh from College Football Nerds made last Saturday about Arkansas’s performance/schedule so far.

This bubble was popped in a major way last Saturday when Cincinnati, previously thought to be a bigtime win for Arkansas, was struggling with Miami (OH) at the half and ended the game with a really unimpressive performance. Moreover, South Carolina got absolutely pasted by Georgia, and Arkansas, as previously mentioned, ended up struggling against FCS Missouri State. All of a sudden, the shine comes off Arkansas’s record quite a bit.

This is not to say that this will be an easy game for the Aggies by any stretch, or that the Hogs are way overrated. But this combined with how advanced stats profiles view both teams (SP+ has the Aggies ranked several spots higher, as do the FEI ratings), I can see the rationale for the Aggies being favored. I don’t want to give away too much of my “3 reasons the Aggies will win” column just yet, but what A&M will have returning for this game (yes, Arkansas, I know you have guys coming back also) will help quite a bit as well.

As I’ve said before, I tend to be an optimist when it comes to the Ags, so I sometimes have to check myself if I feel like A&M has a good chance of winning when the odds seemed stacked against them. That said, however, I feel like the numbers are backing up my intuition on this one, so I’ll have to rate this take as TIRED.