Texas A&M Football: 3 reasons the Aggies will beat Mississippi State

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Sep 24, 2022; Arlington, Texas, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks running back Rashod Dubinion (6) is thrown to the ground by Texas A&M Aggies defensive back Jaylon Jones (17) during the second half at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports /

The Aggie pass defense will lock down the Bulldogs

I’ll say this up front: you won’t stop a Mike Leach-coached team from putting up huge yardage numbers absent an elite pass rush, which the Aggies currently lack. However, this A&M passing defense is for real. They rank 10th in both total yardage and YPA allowed— both elite marks

Even more impressive? The Aggies have allowed, by my calculation, only 73% of opponent passing averages so far this season (on a per-attempt rather than total yardage basis). In other words, you can expect only about 73% of your normal passing output when facing the Aggies.

As College Football Nerds on Youtube (from whom I got the idea to track this stat) have pointed out several times, it is extremely difficult to hold teams under about 75% of their normal production through the air. A&M is in rare air here.

Obviously, this poses a problem for a primarily passing-based offense. Now, Leach teams run the ball sneakily well, but that hasn’t been the most reliable option for them in the past. The mission against an offense like this is similar to how Durkin’s defense has operated all year: give them underneath options, make them drive the field and dare them to execute, and then clamp down in the red zone (which, as I’ll talk about coming up, the Aggies have excelled at).

MSU is a senior-laden team, but I think A&M will have enough to stymy them more times than not. Additionally, look for this to be the week that this secondary turns those “almost had it” plays into turnovers— a couple of interceptions would go a long way towards the Aggies pulling this one out.