Texas A&M Football: New Preseason Projections for Aggies Win Total

Ainias Smith, Texas A&M football Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
Ainias Smith, Texas A&M football Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports /
Texas A&M football
Ainias Smith, Texas A&M football Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports /

With spring practice for Texas A&M football now well behind us, and transfers both in and out pretty much cemented, the number-crunchers are redoing their projections for the upcoming season for teams across the nation. Kelley Ford of KFord Ratings has recently released his list of ratings, as well as predictions each team’s schedule—or what each team should consider “realistic expectations” for the upcoming season. Below is a comprehensive Twitter thread of those ratings, which can also be found here:

If you can’t read text that small, I’ll consolidate the relevant info here. Ford sees realistic expectations for Texas A&M football in 2023 as 8-4 with a 4-4 conference record. According to his formula, the Aggies have the following chances to win each game:

  • New Mexico: 99%
  • at Miami: 61%
  • ULM: 99%
  • Auburn: 71%
  • Arkansas: 65%
  • Alabama: 22%
  • at Tennessee: 33%
  • South Carolina: 76%
  • @ Ole Miss: 46%
  • Mississippi State: 70%
  • Abilene Christian: >99%
  • @ LSU: 26%

Ford sees the possibility of a 10+ win season as low—his formula has Texas A&M football with only a 9% chance of reaching at least 10 wins. Despite the Aggies coming in as the 16th-ranked team in his ratings, they play three teams ranked higher than them (Alabama, LSU, and Tennessee) and go on the road to play a team that, according to Ford, they are pretty evenly-matched with (Ole Miss).

Last year’s showing notwithstanding, Ford foresees a bounce-back year for the Aggie defense, ranking them 5th overall in the country—good for number 1 in the SEC West. The offense, however, is a different story. Ford has them ranked as the 56th offense in the country—dead last in the division.

This is where I think the Aggies have a chance to buck these projections and make their chances at a 10+ win season a little bit better. The hire of Petrino has a chance at vastly improving the offensive side of the ball—though, of course, it certainly could be more of the same next year. If the offense can play up to the skill level of some of the studs we know the Aggies have on that side of the ball—Weigman, Muhammad, Smith, Stewart, Moss, etc.—then the outlook could be much brighter for 2023. The defense has to hold up their end of the bargain and show improvement—especially against the run—but I have faith in the talent in DJ Durkin’s unit as well.

I think 8 wins is enough to save Jimbo’s job. I don’t think it’s enough to satisfy the majority of the fans. If this team indeed does go 8-4, 2024 will be an interesting ride. Here’s hoping this year’s record is good enough to quell the unrest among the Texas A&M football faithful.

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