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Did Texas A&M Football Trade One Mediocre Coach for Another?

By Graham Harmon

Nov 4, 2017; College Station, TX, USA; Texas A&M Aggies head coach Kevin Sumlin on the sidelines against the Auburn Tigers at Kyle Field. Mandatory Credit: Erich Schlegel-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 4, 2017; College Station, TX, USA; Texas A&M Aggies head coach Kevin Sumlin on the sidelines against the Auburn Tigers at Kyle Field. Mandatory Credit: Erich Schlegel-USA TODAY Sports /
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Who had better Texas A&M football teams overall?

As I thought about this article, it kept coming back to me how different watching the teams under each coach has felt to me as an observer. I think the point we’ve already examined about big wins coming at home for Jimbo and less so for Sumlin is part of that, but I think there are other factors at play. SP+ ratings for Texas A&M football over the past few years can be revealing here.

Let’s start with this: the average final ranking for Sumlin teams in this metric was 20.17; for Fisher, it has been 16.4. Sumlin teams finished in the top 10 overall once (2012) and Fisher teams have done it twice (2020 and 2021). Sumlin had the best finish, ranking 3rd in Johnny Football’s freshman year, but Jimbo has been more consistent, ranking 6th, 9th, and 11th in 2021, 2020, and 2018 respectively. Sumlin’s worst finish was 36th in 2017 (the year he was fired), and Jimbo’s worst finish was 35th (last year).

The biggest difference between Sumlin and Fisher teams has been, without a doubt, the defense. The average defensive ranking for a Sumlin-coached Texas A&M football team was 45; for Fisher-led Texas A&M football teams, it’s 16.4. Mike Elko never had a defense rank lower than 23rd; Sumlin’s teams had defenses that ranked 47th, 52nd, 61st, and 83rd. You may expect something equal and opposite for the offenses, but the data doesn’t bear it out: while Sumlin is ahead in that category, it’s not by much. The average ranking for Sumlin-led offenses was 21.67, while for Fisher’s offenses it’s been 32. Three times Aggie offenses under Sumlin ranked 10th or better; Fisher did it twice. Sumlin’s worst offense was ranked 51st (2015), and Fisher’s was 72nd (last year).

Something else notable here is that Sumlin’s teams began to decline after 2014, such that while neither unit was awful after that point, his teams never boasted either an elite offense or defense. Even though Fisher’s teams have had trouble offensively after Mond departed, they’ve still had elite defenses: the Aggies have finished in the top 20 in defensive SP+ each of the past three years, and are headed comfortably for a similar mark this year, if not top-10 (they currently rank 8th in the nation).

So this is all a lot of information. Let’s wrap up and summarize by making the case for each coach.