Keys to the Game for Texas A&M Football vs. South Carolina

How Texas A&M Football Beats South Carolina

I’m going to try a bit of a different format here, starting with this weekend’s game for Texas A&M football. I’m going to do a “what should happen” section—the places I think the Aggies will perform well against the Gamecocks—and a “what needs to happen” section—where I think the Aggies will have to perform better than they normally do. That said, let’s jump in.

(NB: many stats here thanks to Parker on Twitter).

What Should Happen for Texas A&M Football

1. Game Control: The Aggies should have a high level of ball and game control in this matchup. The Gamecocks have a really tough time generating quality possessions, only notching a first down inside the opponent 40 on about 37% of their drives. The Aggie defense allows such possessions only 33.3% of the time. Conversely, the Aggies are one of the best teams in the nation at generating quality possessions, doing so on 57.8% of their drives (yes, really!), and the Gamecocks are one of the worst teams, allowing such possessions on 50.6% of drives.
2. Intransigent Rush D: Texas A&M football has one of the best rushing defenses in the nation, both by success rate and EPA/rush. The Gamecocks have a terrible rushing success rate, and a well-below-average EPA/rush. Things will be tough on the ground for Carolina.
3. Late Down Success: The Aggies allow conversions on only 28.6% of third and fourth downs. The Gamecocks convert only 36.5% of their late downs. On the other side of the ball, Texas A&M football is only average at their late down success rate (42.9% conversion), but the Gamecocks are horrendous defensively (45.9% conversion allowed).

What Needs to Happen for Texas A&M Football

1. Aerial Shutdown: The Gamecocks have been decent throwing the ball this year; 23rd in EPA/Pass and 53rd in passing success rate. Texas A&M football can more than match them, though; ranking 13th and 14th in those defensive categories, respectively. Carolina may be without their top receiver, which would help the Ags, but they’ll have to win this matchup to keep the Gamecocks off the board.
2. Rush Success: It’s a bit inexplicable to me how poorly the Aggies have done on the ground this year. They’re just kind of average, ranking 71st in EPA/Rush and 79th in rushing success rate, and tend to notch slightly higher success rates and YPC than their opponents have generally allowed. The Gamecocks rank 70th in EPA/rush allowed, but 106th in rushing success rate allowed, so the Aggies should be able to hopefully stay ahead of the chains at a decent clip in this one.
3. Early Down Success: For their struggles on late downs, the Gamecocks have done okay on 1st and 2nd writ large. The Aggies do well at creating negative plays and stymying opponents on those downs, and they’ll have to do the same against the Gamecocks to keep them out of favorable distances on third. On the other side of the ball, this is a weakness against a weakness: for the Aggies’ part, this is likely due to issues in running the ball consistently. Stay ahead of the chains and keep them behind the chains… That’s all there is to it for Texas A&M football.