Five Bold Predictions for Texas A&M Football vs. Mississippi State

Five Bold Predictions for Texas A&M Football vs Bulldogs

Texas A&M football is taking on Mississippi State this weekend in a must-win for the Aggies. I’m pretty bullish on the chances here for the Ags, so let’s get into some bold predictions.

Will Rogers starts but gets fewer than 6 YPA
In my Q&A with Maroon and White Nation earlier today (our sister site and one-stop-shop for all things Mississippi State), my Starkvillian interlocutor mentioned that he thought Will Rogers would be returning for this matchup. Even if he does, I think the Aggie front can get home and torment the Bulldog QB all day long.

Jaylen Henderson starts and notches 8+ YPA and 2+ total TDs
This one is bold on two fronts: first, it assumes that Max Johnson can’t go for the Aggies when the indications thus far have been otherwise. Second, this would at least be higher than all but two of the starts Max has made so far this season (9.6 YPA against Bama and 8.3 YPA against SC). I think there will be a lot of green grass for the receivers to run to in this one, so there may be some YAC work going on here, but if Henderson can reliably find the open guy, which I don’t think should be too hard, then I feel good about how he’ll perform.

Mississippi State held below 1 point per drive
So far this season, Texas A&M football has held three offenses to less than one point per drive: New Mexico, ULM, and Auburn. The Tigers, per SP+, currently have the 59th-ranked offense; the Warhawks the 118th; and the Lobos the 98th. Mississippi State has the 64th-ranked unit on the offensive side of the ball.  They’re not as bad as ULM or UNM, but if the Aggies could hold Auburn to such a low mark, then they can do the same with the Bulldogs.

Texas A&M football exceeds 5 YPC
Thankfully, it seems that running back Le’Veon Moss will be available for this game. Moss is the top back of the three the Aggies have used this year, in my opinion, and I think his skills will be well-utilized in this contest. I see the Aggies being able to lean on the ground game in this one, especially come the second half.

State notches less than 30% success rate
The Aggie defense has held two opponents under 30% success rate so far this season: ULM and Arkansas. State has been flirting with the low 30s offensively in each of the last four Power 5 games they’ve played, but have been held under 30% by only LSU. I see the Bulldogs having an extremely hard time getting things going consistently and driving the ball on the Aggie defense.