FULL PREVIEW AND PREDICTION: Texas A&M Football vs LSU

When Texas A&M football is on defense

By opponent-adjusted points per drive allowed, Texas A&M football has the top defense in the SEC. They also possess the lowest YPC allowed expressed as a percentage of opponent’s average YPC gained, the highest number of sacks per game, the highest sack rate (raw and opponent-adjusted), the highest number of TFLs per game, the highest TFL rate (raw and opponent-adjusted), the lowest PPA/rush allowed, the second-lowest third down conversion percentage allowed, and the second-lowest success rate allowed both as a raw number and expressed as a percentage of opponent’s average success rate gained. There’s more, but you get the picture—as an overall defense, this is one of the elite in the SEC, and up there with Alabama as the best the Tigers will have seen this year.

For however stout the defense has been for Texas A&M football this year, though, the LSU offense has been, especially recently, just as dynamic. The Tigers notched 2.18 points per drive against FSU in the first game of the year and didn’t fall back below 3 in that mark until they played Alabama. On the year, they’ve averaged a whopping 4.23 points per drive. This is somewhat buoyed by huge performances against Grambling, Army, and Georgia State, (6.36, 5.64, and 6.22 PPD respectively) but they’re consistently operating in the high 3-low 4 range in conference games.

Their passing offense with Jayden Daniels gets a lot of attention, but it’s the rushing offense that catches my eye (of course, Daniels is a big part of that, too). The Tigers have averaged a 59% success rate on the ground this year, with their lowest mark of the year being 43% against FSU. The next highest average rushing success rate in the conference is UGA with 49%. The Aggies boast the lowest rushing success rate allowed in the conference at 32%; a key here to me will be whether Texas A&M football can keep the rushing success rate at 40% or below for the Tigers—something no team has yet done when facing LSU.

It’s the passing attack of the Tigers, though, that is the biggest worry for Texas A&M football. I’ve spoken of the “freeze point” that there seems to be with this Aggie pass defense. Here’s what I mean: against Miami, Alabama, and Ole Miss, the Aggies allowed 0.760 PPA/pass, 52% passing success rate, and 11.28 yards per attempt. Against all other power five opponents with at least 20 passing attempts against A&M, the Aggies allowed -0.032 PPA/pass, 31% passing success rate, and 4.27 YPA. Here’s the point: this is an Aggie passing defense that is extremely feast-or-famine. The worry is that the Tigers will be able to feast; they are much more in the class of Alabama and Ole Miss in their passing attack than they are South Carolina, Tennessee, and Mississippi State.

So is there any reason for optimism? Well, you could look at it this way: the only team to reach the “freeze point” against the Aggies since the middle of the season—when Deuce Harmon took the place of Josh DeBerry—was the one that was facing the backup Aggie corners. Of course, it also happened to be the best passing team the Aggies have faced in the back half of the year, but that’s a glass-half-full/glass-half-empty thing. The Aggie corners will have their hands full with the long LSU receivers—both Chappell and Harmon are a bit smaller, but they’ve shown an ability to cover bigger guys without too many issues for the most part.

Edgerrin Cooper will be a key piece in containing the QB run game. Jayden Daniels has rushed for over 1000 yards this year at over 8 YPC; keeping him from picking up third down conversions with his legs will be huge in this one. Who better than Cooper, a linebacker with more explosiveness than Daniels has seen all year, to be up to the task? He and the whole Aggie front will have their hands full; LSU boasts one of the better offensive lines that the Aggies will have seen.