Texas A&M is coming into this game against Arizona State as heavy favorites, with Vegas lines favoring the Aggies by two touchdowns or more. Of course, the biggest factor for whether the Aggies can end up covering this big line will without a doubt be the play of Marcel Reed.
The Aggie quarterback broke out onto the scene in a big way last season, leading A&M to 11 straight wins to open the year before faltering in the final two contests. Both of those games ended up with Reed having pretty poor showings, leading many to put the blame on his shoulders.
In both of those games, Texas and Miami, the opposing defensive coordinators used the same strategy: keep everything in front of us and don't let the explosive Aggie offense beat us deep. They were counting on the notion that Reed would not be able to consistently take the Aggies down the field— and, in large measure, they were correct.
Arizona State has a choice for Marcel Reed— and it will show whether his growth is real
The Aggie offense was great at hitting big plays down the field last season, but where they struggled was consistency in operating the passing game. This had less to do with Marcel's accuracy and more to do with his decision-making— often, there would be open plays underneath, but he would have locked on to trying for a big downfield throw and therefore miss the right read being the check down.
When Marcel got into this mode last year, what became most effective for the Aggie offense was shifting to a rush-heavy attack . This is what eventually helped A&M pull away in the Missouri game when the Tigers took this tack (10.5 yards per carry in the second half of that one), but it was not how things happened against Texas and Miami— part of that has to do with those teams having defensive fronts that could control the line of scrimmage with lighter boxes, but it also looked like there really wasn't even that much of an effort being made in the play calling department.
Marcel said this offseason that one of his biggest areas of growth was learning to take the checkdown when it is available— taking what the defense gives him, in other words. This game against Arizona State will be a chance to prove that he has done just that.
ASU basically has to pick their poison when it comes to how they are going to defend the Aggies in this one: either they can attempt to pressure Marcel and knock him off of his game early, manning up on the A&M receivers outside, or they can stick to the conservative coverage and make him work his way down the field. I foresee them starting with the latter option, given how effective it was for previous opponents.
If the Sun Devils come out with that kind of coverage, it will be a proving grounds for Reed. We know he has the deep ball in his bag— he's more than proven that at this point— but fans need to see that he can make the right read, again and again, to keep the defense on their back foot on a long drive.
Of course, the other piece of this is that the Aggies' offensive front might just be able to maul the Sun Devils in the run game, and we could see A&M shift into ground-and-pound mode with Owens, Morrow, Edwards, and Baker. That could lead to ASU beginning to throw crazy numbers into the box, opening up the opportunity for the explosive passing that we've grown used to out of this offense.
I think that, as a strategic move, though, the coaches may want to see if Marcel can pick apart the conservative zones that gave him issues last year. Holmon Wiggins and Joey Lynch no doubt have been drilling this with Marcel all offseason, and fans should get to see the results begin to manifest in this Saturday's game.
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