Texas A&M's program has had a constant sense of forward momentum under Mike Elko's regime thus far, moving from 8-5 in year one to 11-2 in year two, spending most of that season as a top-three team in the nation. They made the College Football Playoff despite a gutting late-season loss, and even though in front of a raucous Kyle Field crowd, they ended up barely losing in their first-round game thanks to going up against the eventual national runners-up in Miami.
Elko's program has already reached heights the Aggies haven't seen in quite some time, and they're looking to take even another step in the upcoming year— not only making the College Football Playoff, but making a run towards the national title. There are reasons for optimism and there are reasons for worry, but the ability to develop talent that this staff has shown is something a lot of fans are coming back to.
Of course, since this is Texas A&M, the Aggies are going to have to prove themselves in the eyes of the national media before they are given any sort of benefit of the doubt, and that reality has been put on display again. In the recent bowl projections put out by Athlon, it's clear that the expectation for Mike Elko's program is to be in neutral for the upcoming season rather than making any progress— exactly where A&M fans don't want to be.
Texas A&M projected to be one-and-done again in CFP by Athlon Sports
It's an achievement to make the College Football Playoff for the first time, but if all you ever do is qualify without winning any games, that's a concerning sign. If this projection by Athlon is really what comes to pass, then the storm clouds of concern are going to begin gathering on the horizon.
That is especially true if this happens like Athlon projects it to. The Aggies are slated as the no. 9 seed, with Texas ahead of them as the no. 3 seed and Ohio State as no. 1— that clearly telegraphs that Athlon believes Texas finishes 11-1 with a loss to the Buckeyes, and the Aggies finish 10-2 with a loss to Texas and one other team (possibly LSU, Alabama, or Oklahoma).
What's more, the Aggies are matched up with 8-seeded Oklahoma in Norman in the first round, and Athlon expects them to get bounced. This would either be two losses to OU in two games, or splitting the two-game series with the Aggies losing the more consequential one.
Losing in this fashion would be bad enough, but it's even worse when it's to a regional and historical rival like Oklahoma. This is a statement kind of game for the Aggies, so it's one they can't lose— especially when Elko needs wins like that under his belt.
It's doubtful that the CFP committee would do an exact repeat of a game that had happened in the penultimate weekend of the regular season in the first round, so it's possible that, in this scenario, the Aggies could either slide down a spot or OU could move up a spot (of course, in this prediction, that would pair the Aggies with... Miami).
All told, if the Aggies make it to the College Football Playoff again, they are in good shape overall— but failing to advance would sting even more this year than it did last season. Hopefully, last year's experience is enough to springboard the Aggies into the second round this upcoming season— and even further.
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