There is perhaps no game that Texas A&M fans dread on their conference schedule more than Mississippi State. The Aggies' contest with the Bulldogs, which has heretofore been a yearly staple in the SEC but will be no longer with the new schedule, has always been a high-risk, low-reward venture for Texas A&M: you don't get much respect if you win, but you fall in estimation quite a bit if you lose.
There are plenty of games like that on every power team's schedule, of course— the problem here is that the Aggies have lost this game far more than they should have. The 2016 game was the first example here: Texas A&M came in ranked 4th in the initial CFP rankings, but then, thanks to an injury to Trevor Knight, they lost to the lowly Bulldogs.
2017, 2018 and 2021 exemplified the same thing. The Aggies should have won all of those games, but the Bulldogs— twice in Starkville and twice in College Station— bit the Aggies in highly frustrating games for the A&M faithful.
Mississippi State hopes to upset Texas A&M once again
The Bulldogs hope to do the same thing here. Jeff Lebby has somehow snatched improvement from the jaws of irrelevance after losing most of his contributors to the portal last offseason— off of a team that went 2-10. MSU is now 4-1, and just lost to top-15 Tennessee in overtime.
However, this will be their first time out of the state of Mississippi since the season began— the only other road game that State has played was a de facto home contest against Southern Miss to open the year. So, what are the chances they actually pull this off?
I'm not bullish on MSU in that regard. The spread has opened at a number that raised a lot of eyebrows around the country, favoring the Aggies by two touchdowns— given A&M's performance against Auburn, it had a lot of people feeling the Bulldogs against the spread, but I think there's more going on here.
The injuries to the Bulldogs could be potentially be devastating, as they are definitely missing some big time contributors and possibly missing even more. Even if they were at full health, I'm not sure that they'll be able to effectively run against this A&M front with consistency— which is something they'll have to do in light of the fact that they'll not have a lot of luck in one-on-one matchups out wide.
Davon Booth and Fluff Bothwell are two great running backs with two great names, but A&M has seen a better pair already when they faced Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. They'll get theirs, but A&M's tackling was on point against Auburn— hopefully, it will be again.
That's to say nothing of the fact that State is possibly even worse about giving up sacks than Auburn is, and the Aggie front was highly productive against the Tigers last week. I think MSU can put up some yards, but their drives should flame out more often than not against the Aggies/
When the Bulldogs are on defense, things won't be a whole lot better. I don't have a lot of faith in the MSU defensive backfield to cover Concepcion and the former Bulldog Mario Craver with great efficacy, and if they decide to just play shell coverage and keep everything in front of them, both A&M receivers can make hay after the catch.
State has been decent at stopping the run, but so was Auburn before they faced Texas A&M. I am anxious to see how that matchup goes— I have a lot of confidence in the Aggies' offensive front, but if MSU is able to stuff the run, it will say a lot about how legit this defense really is.
There are simply not a lot of edges here for the Bulldogs when all is said and done. They have some good players, but a number of those are injured; they're off to a good start, but every game has been at home. I think the Aggies roll in this one: I'm sticking with my prediction of 41-17 from earlier in the week.