When you're in peak offseason mode, the discussion of things like win ceilings and win floors is commonplace. It is not uncommon to see projections done in that form as we get ever closer to the actual start of the college football season.
These can be hit or miss, obviously, and fodder for hilarity in hindsight. We know far less about each individual team at this point than we do once the games are played, so there's a lot of conjecture playing into the equation if you're not talking about statistical models.
That said, I think there are some things that we can say pretty certainly are beyond the pale.CBS's best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Aggies is surely something that will be controversial for the way they discuss A&M's floor for the upcoming season.
CBS shockingly assigns 5-7 floor to Texas A&M for 2025 football season
CBS has outlined their best and worst case scenarioes for every SEC team in the upcoming year, and they said that the Aggies could end up at the dreaded 5-7 mark. When given the space to outline their rationale, here's all they offered:
"There's some regression coming, right?... Texas A&M will not be favored on the road against Notre Dame, LSU or Texas -- and the home showdown with Florida on Oct. 11 could get tricky if quarterback DJ Lagway is the breakout performer most are expecting."
So, for those of you counting, that is four losses— not seven. Presumably, the other three are South Carolina, Missouri, and... who? Arkansas? Mississippi State?
This has me wondering what the criteria for "worst case" actually is. Worst realistic case? Because it stretches credulity that the Aggies could realistically pile up seven losses absent a lot of injury. And if we're counting injury as part of this possibility space, then for all we know right now, every single starter could get injured on the first snap of the game against UTSA and the Aggies could go 0-12!
Meanwhile, the "worst case" scenario for the Longhorns is 8-4 in this article. As a matter of fact, I would say that 8-4, given everything that the Longhorns are replacing, is actually not that unrealistic of an outcome, seeing how their schedule plays out. Worst case— if, as they say in the article, that could include injury to their starting QB— would be more like 6-6. At least, if the Aggies' floor is 5-7, that shoudl be the case.
I think it's germane to mention that the "worst-case" projection for the Aggies in 2022 was 8-4. And, due to injury, they plummeted far below that mark. Something to keep in mind as we consider this projection.