ESPN's FPI rankings have never been the kindest to Texas A&M throughout the years, though the improvement that MIke Elko has brought to the program has been recognized in the way they have had a noticeable bump since the Aggies' head man came to town. FPI is completely data-based, of course, but there are humans behind how each stat is weighed in the formula— and though it's undersold the Aggies before, the ascension of A&M under Elko has been undeniable.
This year, though there are some positives for the Aggies, the overall picture that FPI is painting of their chances is not a rosy one. Texas A&M debuts at no. 11 in the ratings— lower than they are in SP+ and, in all likelihood, lower than they will be in the AP Poll, for example— and the percentage chances that FPI is giving them to make it to the playoff and conference championship are nothing short of disheartening.
Of course, this is a game that is played on the field, not on a spreadsheet— and I say that as an ardent promoter of advanced statistics in the sport! But you can only judge so much before the season actually gets off of the ground. For now, though, let's take a look at exactly what the path forward looks like for Texas A&M according to FPI.
Texas A&M undersold again in ESPN's new FPI ratings, but there's a glimmer of hope
Let's start off with the positive: the Aggies are rated with a 20.0 on FPI's Power Index, higher than any finish they've had since 2012. That speaks to how far Elko has brought this program from where he found it.
The bad news is that that's only good for 11th in the country and 5th in the SEC. The Aggies are behind Texas Tech, LSU, Alabama, Miami, Indiana, Georgia, Oregon, Notre Dame, Texas, and Ohio State in this ranking, though Tech and LSU are both listed as having equivalent 20.0 ratings to the Aggies, which suggests the difference is small enough to be less than 0.5.
The optics, though, are not good: if it's really a numbers-based reason that the Aggies are lower than Tech and LSU (both of whom are teams that the Aggie faithful do not like, as it happens), then it should be shown. As of right now, it just looks like a three-way tie where ESPN decided to put A&M on the bottom.
A&M plays three of those teams ranked ahead of them in LSU, Alabama, and Texas, with only one of those games at home. Oklahoma, who A&M plays on the road, is ranked directly behind the Aggies (though they only have a 17.8 in the Power Index, meaning the difference between Texas A&M and them is more comparable to the difference between the 11th-ranked Aggies and the 7th-ranked Miami Hurricanes).
All told, the Aggies play seven top-25 teams per these initial FPI ratings, the same number as Texas. That number ties Florida, Georgia, and Ole Miss for the second-most top-25 teams on a single team's schedule— OU is in the lead with eight.
It's this difficulty in schedule that gives the Aggies only a 39.1% chance to make the Playoff, according to this initial rating, despite the fact that they are within the top 12 in FPI. Texas and Georgia are the only two teams in the conference that FPI sees with a better-than-coin-flip chance of getting in the 12-team field here at the outset of the season.
Of course, a lot can change once the games start to be played. Once Texas A&M gets on the field, and especially after the first few conference games of the year, we'll have to see how these chances begin to shift. Right now, though, FPI is telling a clear story: the road ahead is quite difficult for Texas A&M football.
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