With only hours to go until kickoff, Texas A&M is closing as a 13.5-point favorite over the Arkansas Razorbacks in a game where both teams desperately need a win. The Aggies are the far more talented squad of the two, without a doubt, but talent only can do so much when your team is not functioning as a cohesive whole.
That's what we've been seeing out of the Aggie for the past two weekends on offense. The Aggies put up a measly 197 total yards against LSU last week, and though they ended the game with over 400 yards against Kentucky, a lot of that came in desperation. In addition, though the hidden yardage played in big against Arizona State, the Aggies only managed 255 yards against the Sun Devils.
Meanwhile, though, there are some real bright spots for the Aggies to build on. They looked good running the ball last week and were able to make some things happen on offense when they committed to that aspect of their game— this would be a prime time for A&M to see how their offense works when they lean into that side of things.
Texas A&M vs Arkansas final odds and predictions: Run game is Aggies' key against Hogs
The Aggies' opponent makes this that much easier, too. The Razorbacks allow about a 46% rushing success rate on the season, and that's counting two games against Northern Alabama and Tulsa in there. Their Power 4 opponents have both exceeded the 50% rushing success mark when playing Arkansas, so it's a real opportunity for the Aggies to control the game on the ground.
If A&M gets up early, though, then it's also possible we see offensive coordinator Holmon Wiggins try to do what he can to get Marcel Reed back on track. Kentucky was a surprising game, but there was a certain amount of pressure on Reed against both ASU and LSU to make a lot happen— and he was clearly in his head.
Getting him some positive reps later on in this one, if the Aggies are well in control, could serve him down the line. Sometimes you have to shake out of a funk against a lower-quality opponent— Reed was unable to do that against the Missouir State Bears, but Arkansa could be a team where he gets that opportunity.
You don't want to count your chickens before they're hatched, though, so the Aggies must focus on getting the win tonight. I think we do see that, as well as something of an improved offensive attack— though future games will tell whether or not that's the opponent or things finally getting a little bit whipped into shape in College Station.
I've got the Aggies taking home a win tonight, 34-13. Arkansas will hang tough for a while, but the 12th Man will be too much for their new offense, and the Aggies will get back in the win column for the first time since week two.
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