Mike Elko and Texas A&M are set to kick off the first of their final four games of the season today in Columbia, SC against the South Carolina Gamecocks. The Aggies are coming into this one at 4-4, while the Gamecocks are 5-3 and riding a three-game win streak as one of the hotter teams in the nation.
Carolina entered the week as a 7.5-point favorite, but that line has shrunk ever so slightly to 6.5 in favor of the Gamecocks, according to FanDuel. It will be interesting to see if that line moves any more in one way or another as game time approaches, but it's likely that A&M will come into this game as right around a touchdown underdog.
Texas A&M was only a three-point underdog against the Missouri Tigers earlier this year, of course, and they ended up losing by three touchdowns. There's a clear way this game could get out of hand just like that one, too— there are some worrisome matchups for this Texas A&M team against the Gamecocks.
Final odds and predictions for Texas A&M's game against the South Carolina Gamecocks
Let's start with what Texas A&M could possibly take advantage of, though. Carolina's defense can be had through the air, as they are 94th in the nation in defensive passing success rate and 110th in the nation in defensive EPA/pass— the unfortunate thing there is that the Aggies have been pretty inept in general in the passing game, ranking 90th in offensive passing success rate and 117th in offensive EPA/pass.
That's a weak-on-weak matchup, though, so the Aggies could certainly come out swinging in this one and look better than they have so far this year. They'll need to at least in some measure if they want to win this game, as their bread and butter— the run game— can't win this matchup alone.
Texas A&M will have to have at least some success in the pass game if they want to be able to run the ball effectively— and if they want to be as effective as possible in that respect, they also need to incorporate Marcel Reed's legs early and often. KJ Edwards is a dynamic back who will hopefully be available today, but the way to really get this A&M run game going is to have Marcel also moving things along on the ground.
On the flipside, the Aggies will have to limit LaNorris Sellers in the run game. Mike Elko is no stranger to facing a Kendal Briles offense with a huge dual-threat quarterback behind center, but Sellers is leaps and bounds better than KJ Jefferson ever was when he's operating at full bore, which he has been over the past few games.
Sellers was too much of a passer last year, but they've helped him fully unlock his dual-threat capabilities this season en route to creating one of the best overall rushing offenses in the country. A&M has been pretty good at stopping the run this year, but this is by far the best rushing offense they've seen.
The Aggies have the benefit of the bye week, but I just can't help but feel that the Gamecocks have the upper hand here. Carolina has jumped out to big leads in several games before allowing opponents back in, and I see the same thing happening here— but Carolina will eventually pull away. I'll say 31-23 in favor of the Gamecocks.
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