Texas A&M will welcome in the Miami Hurricanes for a first-round College Football Playoff showdown this Saturday, as the Cristobal-led squad barely snuck into the CFP field after two midseason losses put their future into doubt. A win in Kyle Field, where the Aggies are undefeated this season, would springboard Texas A&M into a New Year's Eve matchup with Ohio State in Dallas.
Getting that win may be the toughest task of the year so far for the Aggies, however. The Hurricanes present quite the challenge for this Texas A&M team in two particular areas— though the same could be said in the reverse.
Texas A&M's matchup with Miami will expose one team or the other
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There are ways in which these teams actually profile quite similarly. Both offenses have extremely high success rates down to down, allowing very few sacks and tackles for loss— as a matter of fact, the Aggies allow the lowest TFL rate in the country, while Miami is not far behind them.
The edge here for Miami is going to be explosive plays in the passing game. The Aggies have been a solid defense down to down, but one of the biggest boom or bust defenses in the country: they either shut a play down or they give up a massive gain, no in-between.
Carson Beck and Malachi Toney will decide how this game goes on offense for the Canes. The erstwhile UGA QB can get knocked off of his game by a strong pass rush (which the Aggies have), but Miami has been great at protecting the passer this year. Toney has been a revelation, but he provides nearly all of the juice that the Canes have in that respect. Shut him down, and things could look good for the Aggies on defense.
While the rush game has been more of a concern for Aggie fans, the Hurricanes are actually quite bad at generating explosive running plays. They are second-to-last in the country in opponent-adjusted rushing explosiveness, meaning their successful run plays are, on average, just barely successful instead of reliably generating big gains.
Only 12% of their runs go for 10 or more yards, which is a pretty low mark— especially for a team that boasts such an intimidating offensive line and high rushing success rate (10th in the nation in opponent-adjusted rushing success). The upshot here is that while their offensive line excels at getting push, their running backs do not generate a lot of open-field yards.
The issue, though, is that the Aggies' problem with explosive running plays is not bad tackling for the most part— it's players getting out of position and therefore the defense having nobody home to actually make a tackle at all. That would mean that the running backs for the Canes simply have to stay on their feet to create explosive rushing plays, if this turns into something that plagues the Aggies in this matchup.
Texas A&M has played two teams better than Miami in opponent-adjusted rushing success: Florida and Arkansas. Those two games went in very different directions when it comes to success on the ground, but it's notable that the one that was better for the Aggies took place at home rather than on the road.
On the other side of the ball, the Aggies will have to work hard to generate points, but there are edges to be found. Especially with improved health— and the return of Le'Veon Moss— the Aggies will have a chance to sustain some drives against the Canes, who are 98th in the nation in opponent-adjusted quality possessions allowed (drives that obtain a first down inside the opponent's 40-yard line)— that's fourth-worst in the Power 4.
The recipe for the Aggies to win is to get up early, apply some pressure to the Canes, and lean on them as the second half drags on. I think we see Texas A&M hit some big plays early on in this game before finding success in the veer run game in particular. Give me the Aggies winning this one, 31-23.