Texas A&M football has one game left in the year— a trip down to Austin to play against the rival Texas Longhorns in the Lone Star Showdown. The Aggies are looking to complete an undefeated regular season, while the Longhorns are hoping to avoid an 8-4 finish in a year where they began as the no. 1 team in the rankings.
I won't waste your time here: this is a terrible, terrible matchup for the Longhorns. Every vulnerability they have is something A&M is well-equipped to exploit, while the few vulnerabilities Texas A&M has are things that Texas has not showed it can exploit thus far in the year.
First look: Texas A&M could turn Lone Star Showdown into a laugher by 4th quarter
Here's what I mean: Texas A&M's biggest defensive vulnerability is explosive plays in the run game. Texas has not had a 100-yard rusher in a single game this season, and is one of the worst teams in the FBS when it comes to average yards per carry.
Meanwhile, name a weakness on this Texas team: protecting the quarterback? Texas A&M is the nation's second-best team in sacks. Picking up consistent yardage in the run game? Texas A&M is one of the best in America at preventing successful run plays. Downfield coverage? Texas A&M picks up chunk yardage like it's nothing in the pass game.
Texas fans will point to a defensive unit that they believe is still roughly of the same quality as what we saw last year, but that's a dubious proposition. Consider the below comparison of three teams' overall defensive stats against Power 5 competition:
Stat | Team A | Team B | Team C |
|---|---|---|---|
Yards/Pass Attempt | 7.1 | 7.2 | 7.7 |
Yards/Carry | 4.11 | 3.23 | 3.06 |
Yards/Play | 5.49 | 5.06 | 5.39 |
Points/Game | 22.0 | 24.3 | 25.4 |
Team A is LSU, who A&M scored 49 against on the road. Team B is Missouri, who A&M scored 38 against on the road, while kneeling the ball out inside the Tiger red zone at the end of the game. Team C— probably the worst of these three here— is Texas.
I'll get more into the advanced statistical data later on in the week, but this should scare the living daylights out of Texas fans— though it won't, because this is a fanbase extremely skilled in being highly selective with what facts they internalize.
Let's try something a little clearer: Texas has given up 31 points or more in their last four games, and each of those offenses don't really hold a candle to what Texas A&M is bringing to town. Arch is one of the worst quarterbacks in the country when under consistent pressure, and that's what A&M specializes at.
This adds up to what should be, by the time all is said and done, a complete shellacking by the road team. They've played tougher teams in tougher environments and done nothing but win, while every trend points towards the Longhorns coming out on the losing side— and badly.
Of course, on rivalry weekend, anything can happen— that's the nature of college football. It could well be that Texas A&M completely forgets how to play when they go down there, and Texas plays their best game. That's not likely, but we've seen stranger things happen.
The fact remains, though, that if we have learned anything reliable about either team at all over the course of the season, this is going to be a blowout in favor of the Aggies. I think Texas could probably sneak a few long passing plays in there to make something happen, and maybe there will be a turnover or two, but this is going to be a really rough proposition for them otherwise. Give me Texas A&M winning this one 42-17.