Texas A&M had a historic year in 2025, making it all the way to the College Football Playoff for the first time in school history. Unfortunately, the Aggies got a tough draw in the Miami Hurricanes, who— though barely getting into the field thanks to their 10-2 record— made it all the way to the championship game.
One often-discussed topic, though, was the Aggies' strength of schedule and strength of record from the committee's perspective. Looking at things from the perspective of advanced statistical models, like FPI, SP+, and FEI, the Aggies had an extremely tough record— but the committee's model, which is based solely on win-loss records rather than down-to-down efficiency like these other more sophisticated models, did not favor the Aggies very highly.
If the committee continues with this method of grading SOS and SOR that they currently have, of course, things will only be tougher in this upcoming year. That's because of the SEC's move to a 9-game conference schedule, which consequently could lead to a heck of a lot of teams with middle-of-the-road win-loss records.
If that happens— if there is a big cluster of 5-4 SEC teams with an 8-1 or 9-0 at the top— they will be penalized by the committee, even if those 5-4 SEC teams would have gone 8-1 in the Big 10. that's why the Aggies can't rely on fringe scenarios this year— a 10 win season is the absolute bare minimum for them to get to the playoff.
Texas A&M must go at least 10-2 if they hope to make the College Football Playoff
The Aggies went 11-1 last season, recording the 18th-hardest schedule in the nation, per SP+. That's definitely a feat, but they were saddled with the label of "haven't played anybody" by a lot around the country who can be charitably described as mere box-score watchers— and that, apparently, includes the committee, with their cockamamie schedule formula.
The win over 10-2 Notre Dame helped the Aggies, but the rest of the Irish's record— dominant though their wins were— came mostly against low win-total teams. It was clear that Notre Dame was extremely dominant from these games, but fans looking to discount the Irish attempted to write off that in-game dominance by writing off the end-game result— in other words, of course they should beat Arkansas, so it really doesn't matter how badly they did beat them.
The same thing happened for the Aggies. They absolutely wrecked teams like Missouri and LSU— squads that gave other playoff teams a run for their money— but had it written off. And so, in this upcoming season, as we consider what seems for everything to be a really tough schedule, the Aggies must do whatever they can to not fall below that 10-win meridian.
Texas A&M will need a tentpole win like they had over the Irish last season and many others besides. They won't get that in the non-conference, as Arizona State figures to be just okay this year, so it will have to come against an LSU, Alabama, Oklahoma, or Texas. But if one of those teams has a wrong break later on after the game, the value of that win will decline rapidly.
Such is the folly of this way of grading strength of schedule, and it's a folly that the Playoff committee is apparently committed to going forward. The Aggies will have a herculean task ahead of them, but under Elko, they are more than equal to it.
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