The new round of Bill Connelly's SP+ rankings have released, and Texas A&M football is in a favorable spot. With one exception, the Aggies have been a constant presence near the top of this advanced statistical profile since joining the SEC— the lone outlier being, of course, the 2022 debacle.
Just because the numbers have liked the Aggies on a per-play basis, though, doesn't mean that they've always converted those results into wins, as A&M fans are well aware. Even in 2022, they were by far the highest-rated team with 5 or fewer wins— but that doesn't take away the 7 losses.
For a more recent example, the Aggies finished 13th in the rankings this previous season— of course, we know that they also finished unranked thanks to losing 4 out of 5 to close the year. These are not resume rankings— they obviously could not be in a preseason ranking— instead, they are forward-looking. And when considering the Aggies for next season, there's good news and bad news.
Texas A&M football ranks highly in initial SP+ ratings, but there's trouble ahead
The Aggies come in at 15th overall in the preseason SP+ ratings, which is a pretty decent mark. For context, the Aggies finished at or below 15th in every Sumlin season but 2012, and Jimbo eclipsed that ranking in only half of his seasons in College Station.
However, there's a caution to be made: the Aggies play four teams this season who currently rank higher than them, and only one of those games (Florida) is at home. The other three, Texas, Notre Dame, and LSU, are all road contests, which leads to this dismaying projection:
Good news: Bill has A&M at No. 15 in the SP+ rankings.
— Robert Behrens (@rcb05) May 22, 2025
Bad news: He projects that to equate to 7.7 wins against their schedule. https://t.co/XpLVTXRmIn
I don't think any Aggie fans would be satisfied with another 8-4 season (though which 8 and which 4 obviously matters). Because of the unfavorable home-road splits, though, that's a very real possibility.
Of course, you don't win games in percentages— it's a binary outcome. If A&M wins the games they're supposed to at home and is able to beat who they should on the road as well, the Aggies are looking at 9-3.
The annoying thing is that the one of these three teams that is closest to the Aggies— LSU— comes on the tail end of a back to back SEC road trip, making it a perilous spot on the schedule. If anything, this highlights how important an early win at Notre Dame would be for the Aggies, however improbable it seems from these numbers.
If there's a bit of hope, it's that the returning production numbers even underrate the Aggies: the formula sees low returning numbers at the quarterback position since Conner Weigman is out the door, but Reed's return had that as a moot point anyway. The offense won't be taking a step back in that respect— if anything, it will be improving (especially given some of the weapons the Ags will have at receiver).
This certainly outlines the considerable task the Aggies have ahead of them, though. Week 3 in South Bend will be quite the bellwether early on in the season.