Numbers show Texas A&M football underrated, Texas way overrated by CFP committee

Despite correction to AP Poll faux pas, Texas A&M football should still be ranked higher in CFP rankings

Texas A&M football came in ranked at 14th in the first College Football Playoff rankings this past Tuesday evening. This was a correction, in one way, to their unfavorable position in the AP Poll, which placed them below LSU despite the Aggies defeating the Tigers just one week prior and both teams currently holding the same overall record.

It's really not a terrible position to be in, strategically speaking, for the Aggies, either. 14th is close enough to the top 12 that it's quite feasible for A&M to get into the CFP field if they win out this season.

However, college football statheads have taken a look at these rankings and, using statistical models, have shown where the committee has erred. Kelley Ford of KFord Ratings broke down how good of a job the committee did using his "most deserving" metric—a combo of power rating and resume rating—to show which teams were overrated and underrated.

Two things jumped out to Aggie fans who saw this graphic: first, A&M should be about two spots higher based on their performance thus far this season. The Aggies, rather than being at 14th, should be up in the top 12. Again, this isn't a huge deal strategically speaking, as there is a clear path for A&M to get there in the final rankings, but it could have ripple effects down the line one way or another.

The other is that the Aggies' most recent opponent, South Carolina, is being given absolutely no respect by the committee. The Gamecocks have three losses, yes, but all were to ranked teams—with two that should have arguably ended with SC on top rather than their opponent.

A win in Nashville this weekend would put the Gamecocks in the top 25 without question. Shane Beamer's squad has a chance to make some real noise down the stretch of this season.

It's also worth noting the teams that are far overranked: Notre Dame, Colorado, Texas, and a few others. The Longhorns in particular currently have no impressive wins, unless you count eking out a three-point victory over Vanderbilt as impressive.

I think a 10-2 Texas, given their current ranking, may make the playoff as one of the least deserving teams to ever make the field. If they lose to Texas A&M, their best win of the year would be over Vanderbilt, and they would have lost to both good teams they played in Georgia and A&M. But sitting at 5th right now means they likely would still get in the field anyway.