2024 12-team College Football Playoff rankings prediction after week one

We saw a lot happen in week one of college football—here's how we see things eventually shaking out with the playoff.

Jan 9, 2024; Houston, TX, USA; College Football Playoff senior director of communications Brett Daniels poses with CFP National Championship trophy at press conference at JW Marriot Houston by the Galleria. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 9, 2024; Houston, TX, USA; College Football Playoff senior director of communications Brett Daniels poses with CFP National Championship trophy at press conference at JW Marriot Houston by the Galleria. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports | Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

After an eventful week one, college football is finally truly underway. Week 0 was a nice taster, but week 1 brought us much more of what we were looking for, with a higher quotient of big time matchups.

Of course, we still have a lot left to find out. Many teams that are considered playoff favorites have yet to play a real game after opening with cupcake opponents. Even some that stumbled early on still have plenty of time to regroup—in this age of a 12-team playoff, you're no longer doomed with only one loss.

That enlarged field could prove to be the source of even more selection-related intrigue than the four-team version. I'm sure we'll see many teams vying for those seven at-large spots—and someone's bound to be left out in the cold.

Let's take a look at how the rankings may be shaping up come December, and how these changed from our preseason projections.

Rank

Team

Why they are here

Previous rank

1

Georgia

SEC Champ

1

2

Ohio State

Big 10 Champ

2

3

Miami (FL)

ACC Champ

NR

4

Utah

Big 12 Champ

4

5

Alabama

At-Large

5

6

Penn State

At-Large

8

7

Ole Miss

At-Large

7

8

Notre Dame

At-Large

NR

9

Oregon

At-Large

6

10

Michigan

At-Large

11

11

Clemson

At-Large

10

12

UTSA

AAC Champ

NR

The biggest change at the top is that Miami (FL) is now projected as the ACC champion. This is thanks, in no small part, to the complete tank job of Florida State's playoff hopes through only two weeks. The Seminoles started off ingloriously with an upset loss to Georgia Tech in Ireland, and—for an encore—were decisively dealt with by Boston College at home last night.

Oregon looked unimpressive in a close win over Idaho, but I still believe that Dan Lanning will get things going up there. I liked what I saw from Penn State, and Notre Dame would have to really fall off to finish with fewer than eleven wins at this point.

It's really a crapshoot at this point to figure out which Group of Five team will take that last playoff spot, but I'll go with UTSA. I had Liberty last week, but they were played way too closely by the Campbell Camels.

Schedule

Schedule