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How many upsets does Texas A&M football need to make the College Football Playoff?

Texas A&M football is a dark horse contender for the College Football Playoff this year. How realistic is their path?

By Graham Harmon

Oct 7, 2023; College Station, Texas, USA; Texas A&M Aggies defensive back Bryce Anderson (1) intercepts a pass intended for Alabama Crimson Tide tight end Amari Niblack (84) during the third quarter at Kyle Field. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 7, 2023; College Station, Texas, USA; Texas A&M Aggies defensive back Bryce Anderson (1) intercepts a pass intended for Alabama Crimson Tide tight end Amari Niblack (84) during the third quarter at Kyle Field. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports / Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
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What is Texas A&M football's margin for error if they want to reach the College Football Playoff in 2024?

Texas A&M football finds themselves in a very interesting spot in more than one respect for the 2024 season. Of course, it's the first season after the departure of Jimbo Fisher—one of the most visible and divisive coaches in the history of the school.

But that also means it's the first season for new head coach Mike Elko, who is one of the top defensive minds in the sport, and the talented cadre of assistants he has brought to town with him. Likewise, it's (hopefully) the first full season of a health Conner Weigman, who is bringing a lot of excitement to the program.

This also is a season where the Aggies' schedule sets up somewhat favorably, at least in one respect. Every single highly-ranked team (in the preseason, anyway) that the Aggies will play in 2024 will have to come to Kyle to face off with the Maroon and White.

Still, though, it's not an easy slate. A lot of discussion has been raging about whether it's realistic to think that Texas A&M football could reach 9 or 10 wins this fall. Provided everyone stays healthy, I think they could meet (or even exceed) that mark.

But here we have another interesting way of evaluating the upcoming season. Kelley Ford, the purveyor of his eponymous KFord advanced statistical profile, has put together a chart showing how many mulligans each team has before they are out of CFP contention—and, conversely, how many upsets other teams require before they are in CFP contention.

As you can see from the chart, the Aggies are right in a sweet spot. If they simply win the games in which they will be favored (according to the current KFord ratings, at least), they will be right there in contention for the 12-team College Football Playoff.

To my mind, that means a 9-3 season. I'd wager that Ford has the Aggies favored over either LSU or Missouri as of right now, which I think is pretty fair all things considered. Don't be shocked if we make it into November with the Aggies squarely in the discussion for the 12-team playoff.

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