Initial ESPN FPI rankings slate Texas A&M football as top-15 team, but Aggies nonetheless face unfavorable odds
Most Texas A&M football fans know that the ESPN FPI rankings have never been the most friendly to the Aggies. While other (in my opinion, better-founded) advanced statistical systems like SP+ have looked on the Aggies favorably at time, even in seasons where the win total isn't what you want it to be, FPI always has a head scratcher or two in there.
With the release of the initial FPI rankings for 2024, though, the Aggies find themselves ranked in a decently high spot. Texas A&M football comes in at 14th—that's the good news.
The bad news is that, compared to other statistical profiling systems, the Aggies face a much tougher slate even than previously thought. It should be no surprise that the four big home games are top of mind here: Texas ranks 3rd, Notre Dame 7th, Missouri 10th, and LSU 13th. I think we can all identify some overrating going on there, but regardless, those are your four top opponents without a doubt.
It's the road games that are scarier when you look down the list here. Though in other stat profiles the Aggies are significantly better than an Auburn or a Florida, the gap is much smaller in FPI. The Tigers come in at 19th and the Gators 20th; heck, even the South Carolina Gamecocks are up at 33rd in the rankings here.
This all adds up to the projected win total for the Aggies of 7.6; in other words, absent some bad breaks, FPI sees A&M going 8-4. Of course, there's a lot of priors baked in here that will have to be corrected once the teams actually begin to play (as the Ags have a new coach, etc.), but that is still not very encouraging.