Texas A&M football among nation’s leaders in projected one-score games for 2024; Can the Aggies navigate so many close games?
Over the last few years, Texas A&M football has had more than their fair share of close games. That in itself is not the most surprising thing; in a conference like the SEC, unless you’re a power like Georgia or Alabama, you’ll have quite a few close calls in one direction or the other.
The problem for Texas A&M football over that period of time is that they, more often than not, ended up on the wrong side of those close calls. In 11 one-score games over the last two years, the Aggies were a dismal 2-9, including 0-4 last year.
Given the preponderance of these close games, it’s not crazy to think that improvement along the margins would go a long way for the number in the win column for the Ags. This is further buttressed by the fact that A&M has finished far better in advanced statistical profiles than their record would suggest over the last couple of years.
According to Bill Connelly’s SP+ ratings, the 7-6 Ags were by far the highest-rated 7-win team, finishing at 15th in the nation (right between 9-win Kansas State and 10-win Oklahoma). Even in 2022, the Aggies were again by far the highest-rated team to finish with their win total, this time at 35th in the nation.
Looking forward to this year, it looks like Texas A&M football will once more have a large number of one-score games. Kelley Ford of the eponymous KFord rating system projects them to finish with 7 games that go final with a margin of 8 points or less on either side.
Projected 1-possession regular season games using my official Preseason power ratings
— Kelley Ford (@KFordRatings) August 22, 2024
I’ve said this a lot over the summer, your team’s record in 1-possession games will likely go a long way in determining the success or failure of their season
Godspeed, USC and Colorado pic.twitter.com/Nv0JVbeJx3
So, is this a good thing? Maybe… but maybe not. The Aggies will be favored in most of those games, but it should probably go without saying that the variance that these games can bring could spell disaster for a team with poor luck—after all, that’s exactly what happened to the Aggies over the last two years.
It could be argued, though, that the Aggies are now due. After such a dismal record in these games over the last two years, a regression to the mean should be incoming. Right?