Texas A&M football’s SP+ rating rises in new rankings; Still faces loaded home slate

Texas A&M football’s rating rises but ranking stands pat in SP+ new ratings; Aggies will face four tough games in Kyle Field

Texas A&M football is coming into 2024 surrounded by something between slightly optimistic curiosity and dismissive suspicion by most pundits. The Aggies are consistently ranked in the lower half of the conference when it comes to power ratings, and their talent still on campus is disrespected while that which has departed is magnified.

Coverage is one thing, though: numbers are another. One of my favorite statistical systems to consult before, during, and after the season is Bill Connelly’s SP+: this system has solid, common-sense reasoning underpinning much of what it does, and I find it to be a helpful all-in-one number to measure team quality.

It’s no surprise that SP+ has been higher on Texas A&M football than most pundits here in the preseason. The last update, back in February, had the Aggies as the 13th-best team in the country, with a rating of 19.0. Connelly has now worked in all the numbers with the spring portal, and though the Aggies’ rating rose to a 19.8, they are standing pat at the 13th spot.

Looking at those ranked above the Aggies, though, demonstrates a daunting prospect. The big four home games that A&M will play this season, against Notre Dame, Missouri, LSU, and Texas, all come against teams ranked higher than them in the preseason. The Irish are 10th, Mizzou is 11th, the Bayou Bengals are 9th, and Texas is 4th.

Auburn, Florida, Arkansas, and South Carolina are all ranked well below the Aggies, as are the Mississippi State Bulldogs. It is beginning to look increasingly likely that these four home games will tell the tale of the Aggies’ season, much like the four games against top-5 teams in 2019 did. Hopefully, Texas A&M football will garner better results in this season than that one.

Given that the Aggies are not too far off from any of these teams, and that they will all be at home, I expect Texas A&M football to have a good shot in all four of these games. Preseason projections are just that: projections. Connelly’s system is a great way to calibrate expectations, but we really don’t know exactly what we’ll see out of any of these teams until they take the field. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Ags take a huge leap early on in the season.