Texas Bowl Statistical Preview: Texas A&M Football vs. Oklahoma State

Statistical Models Favor Texas A&M Football; Can Depleted Aggies Pull Through?

By now, it's common knowledge that Texas A&M football will be pretty depleted when they take on Oklahoma State tonight in the Texas Bowl. In fact, they will only have fifty five scholarship players (down from the maximum possible of eighty five) in Houston this evening.

The Aggies do boast some quality PWO players and young talent, but you'd certainly prefer to be a bit deeper, especially at positions like wide receiver, defensive line, and cornerback. This is something to bear in mind when checking in on the statistical models of this game; that said, these can still be pretty informative. Let's take a look.

Parker Fleming's CFBGraphs model has the Aggies with a 67% chance to win in this one. It should be said that this model is heavily weighted towards recent performance, so it should already be adjusted for the fact that Jaylen Henderson is the quarterback, and that the Aggies have been without Evan Stewart, who missed the last four games.

There are some pretty strong advantages for the Aggies here, according to Fleming's EPA model. The passing offense for the Aggies is far better than the passing defense for the Cowboys. The rushing offense for the Aggies, though, may have a tough time against Oklahoma State given these numbers. That said, this will be as big and physical an offensive line that the Cowboys have yet seen this year. I'll be interested to watch the matchup up front.

The defense for Texas A&M football matches up well here against the State offense. Their passing offense is not a great one, and their rushing offense, while the strength of the team, is outclassed by the Aggie rush defense. Of course, this will be a severely undermanned front for the Aggies, but I'm excited to see what guys like Gabe Dindy and David Hicks, extremely talented in their own right, can do against the Cowboys.

If the Aggies can get the Cowboys into late-down situations, they'll be in good shape. Oklahoma State is 78th in 3rd/4th down success rate on offense, and the Aggies are one of the best teams in the nation at stopping teams from picking up those late down conversions.

It looks like the question will be whether the Cowboys can hit some big, explosive plays against Texas A&M football. Their QB isn't the most accurate, but against the backup corners for the Aggies, you have to be worried about the explosive play. This is where it's important to have a guy like Shemar Turner (who, by all indications, should play) to rush the passer and make him get the ball out quickly.

Overall, even though the Aggies are injured and depleted, I still feel good about Texas A&M football coming out with a win. I'm thinking 31-21, or something in that neighborhood.