The biggest reason for confidence in Texas A&M football after Notre Dame loss

Despite a disappointing end to a much-hyped game for Texas A&M football, there's still plenty of reasons for confidence in these Aggies.

Things didn't turn out the way fans wanted. That's part of the game of football. Yes, there were concerning signs in some quarters—QB play, especially, stands out—but in no world should you pull the plug on a season after your first game: one in which you were tied with a top-10 team halfway through the first quarter.

There's room for improvement—and plenty of it. But one game does not decide the Elko era, nor does it decide Conner Weigman's future.

If we really get into the numbers from this game, too, there's something interesting—and encouraging—for Texas A&M football fans to see.

Despite loss, Texas A&M football was more consistently effective than Notre Dame

If you've been around for long enough, you've seen me talk plenty about success rate. Basically, this is a statistic that measures what percentage of your plays are "successful," which is, in this instance, a technical term that measures yardage gained as a percentage of what is required to pick up a first down.

If you get 50% or more of the way to converting on a 1st down play, that's a successful play. If you get 70% or more on second down, that's a successful play. On 3rd and 4th, you have to convert for the play to be considered successful.

This is a smart stat; any football fan could tell you that gaining 5 yards on 1st and 10 is more meaningful than gaining 5 yards on 3rd and 9. This is a statistic that can account for the disparity.

It has also proven consistently, over time, to be predictive of how efficient your team will be on one side of the ball or another. When your success rate consistently exceeds your opponents', you will win a lot of games.

In the game Sunday night, Texas A&M football exceeded Notre Dame's success rate, 40% to 30%. In this chart showing net success rates, you can see the Aggies and Irish all the way over on the left side.

Here's the kicker: the Irish only allowed a 40% or greater success rate two times all of last year: to Louisville (46%) and Clemson (40%). Their lowest success rate on offense last year was 29%, to... the Duke Blue Devils, coached by Mike Elko.

There's a lot that still needs to be figured out. In a way, these sorts of numbers can be frustrating—it was not uncommon to see Jimbo Fisher teams exceed their opponents in success rate, only to lose a close game. That can't become the story under Mike Elko.

All that said, though, this is a data point in favor of the idea that the sky may not be falling just yet. As we look forward to the rest of the season, this is, in fact, a bright spot.