Concerning trend emerging for Texas A&M football with Marcel Reed as signal caller
Texas A&M football fans, even with their team sitting on a 4-1 record, are still in a bit of upheaval. This mostly has to do with the ongoing arguments about who should be the starting quarterback for the Aggies going forward.
Starter Conner Weigman has been out since after game two with a shoulder injury apparently suffered against Notre Dame. In that time, young freshman Marcel Reed has led the Aggies to wins over Florida, Bowling Green, and Arkansas, giving the Ags the aforementioned 4-1 record.
This, along with his dynamic playstyle (read: quickness and ball-carrying ability) has led to calls for him to take over the starting job full time. There’s another camp, though, that says Weigman should step back in as starter once fully healthy.
The calls for Reed as QB1 were loudest after the Florida game, but have significantly diminished since then, and I think there’s a reason for that. Looking at the numbers, some concerning statistical trends are emerging.
Before we tackle that, though, in the interest of fairness, I want to mention what Reed has done well. He is obviously undefeated as a starting QB this year, which, while not necessarily predictive, bears mentioning. He has used his legs effectively at times. He has not turned the ball over, and he has generally not looked very rattled against any team he has faced.
With all that said, though, there are still reasons to think that Weigman may be the better choice for this offense. This leads me to the trend I’m speaking of: several significant statistical categories on the offensive side of the ball have continued to trend downwards every single game that Reed has started for the Aggies.
Stat | Florida | Bowling Green | Arkansas |
|---|---|---|---|
Success Rate | 44% | 43% | 34% |
Points/Drive | 3.00 | 2.60 | 1.50 |
Points/Play | 0.375 | 0.361 | 0.350 |
Third Down Conv. % | 38% | 40% | 34% |
PPA/Play | 0.359 | 0.307 | -0.055 |
Eckel Rate | 77.78% | 60.00% | 35.71% |
- Success Rate is a down-to-down efficiency metric that measures how well you stay “ahead of the chains.”
- PPA/Play is an advanced metric that puts yardage production in context of points. Think of it as yards per play with context (field position, down and distance) added.
- Eckel Rate is a measure of game control that expresses the percentage of offensive drives that get a first down inside the opposing 40.
All of these—scoring efficiency metrics, game control metrics, down-to-down success metrics—are on a downward trend since Marcel took over (third down conversion took a slight bump against Bowling Green, but dipped back down to the same mark that the Ags had against Notre Dame for the Arkansas game).
The concerning thing is that as Marcel continues to take reps in the offense, he’s supposed to be operating things more efficiently. That hasn’t quite manifested, and the Aggies are quickly running out of leeway here.
Texas A&M football has their second of four big home games this Saturday when Missouri rolls into town. If the Aggies win that one, they’ll be in the driver’s seat for what could turn out as an exceptional season. But that will be a huge ask with the way defenses have begun to approach Reed.
The lack of a vertical passing game is not on receivers or on playcalling. They’ve had deep shots called, and guys have been open. But the Aggies have been unable to take advantage of those opportunities with Reed. That’s why Weigman’s return—and soon—rockets the Aggies out of the muck and into the stratosphere.