Preseason average win total simulation predicts dour future for Texas A&M football

Texas A&M football is looking to have a special season in the fall of 2025, but if this prediction comes to pass, it will be more of the same in a pretty negative way. The Aggies have a lighter home schedule and a pretty tough road slate for the upcoming year, but fans are still optimistic that the Aggies can exceed expectations.

However, preseason buzz still isn't that strong for the Aggies. If you took a survey of the median win prediction for the Ags at this point, you'd probably find it between seven and eight... just as it has been for many seasons before.

We see this even in the objective, computer-based models. This has a lot to do with the difficulty of the top level of Texas A&M's schedule— much like in 2019, where the Aggies played five games that would have been sure losses for any squad not of top-10 quality.

Computer model predicts Texas A&M to land at 8 regular season wins on the nose

Parker Fleming, one of the most popular statheads for college football on Twitter, released these projections earlier today, and the number where the Aggies land is sure to upset some fans.

Texas A&M is predicted, statistically speaking, to land right at 8 wins— which, of course, if it were to come to pass, would mean that the "Texas 8-4" moniker would be here to stay for another season.

Of course, this is predicated on preseason predictions rather than actual data from 2025, so there's a lot of reasons that this may end up being wrong. Especially if the Aggies can squeak out a win over Notre Dame early on in the season, that number will most likely see a huge jump.

Because of the way that stats like this work, too, we know that it is all but guaranteed that some teams way overshoot (or undershoot) their projection. Since it's taken from a large number of season simulations, we also know that each end will see some extremes— there will be teams with zero or one losses, and there will be teams with zero or one wins.

This is calibrating, in any case. Texas A&M will have to outplay their preseason expectations in models like this if this is going to be a season to remember.