Texas A&M is heading into Baton Rouge this week to face off with the LSU Tigers as a 7.5 point underdog, according to the early line from FanDuel. The Aggies have fallen significantly in national estimation after their loss to the Kentucky Wildcats this past weekend, but even so, this is a curiously narrow gap between the Aggies and Tigers.
This is a Texas A&M team that just lost by ten to Kentucky at home, and they’re heading on the road to take on an LSU team that now has their backs against the wall early on in the season— and the line is a touchdown. Presuming a three-point swing for home field advantage, the implied line on a neutral field would be 4.5 in favor of LSU, and in Kyle Field it would only be a point and a half in favor of the Tigers.
So, what gives? Why are the Aggies, who are already being completely written off by most in the national media, so close to a team that everyone was ready to anoint as national champions only a couple of weeks ago— even if that team just lost a hard-fought top-ten matchup on the road this past weekend? The answer is clear: there’s been an overcorrection against the Aggies after the Kentucky game, and it is about to work in their favor big time.
Texas A&M’s narrow early line against LSU shows the Aggies shouldn’t be written off just yet
Early-season overreactions are a staple of this sport, and yet we fall victim to them every single time anyway. That’s exactly what has gone on with people completely writing off the Aggies at this point— so you can expect to see a lot of people hammering LSU with this line.
The truth is, though, that A&M is not nearly as bad as people have made them out to be— nor is LSU nearly as good as people have made them out to be. Though Kiffin’s Tigers are still ranked within the top ten after Saturday’s game, there are some clear problems beginning to manifest with that team— and their big early win over Clemson just keeps looking more and more like a mirage.
Now, are they a team that the Aggies will beat? We won’t know that until late Saturday night, but they certainly are not a team that the Aggies can’t beat. Texas A&M and Mike Elko simply have to bring a team that is far more ready than they did this past week.
That’s much easier said than done, but there are distinct reasons to like the Aggies here. The revenge factor for the Tigers is far lessened thanks to the fact that so many key players for LSU were members of other teams last year; Blake Baker still has no idea how to shut down Marcel Reed in the run game; the Tigers are coming off of a hugely emotional game against Ole Miss, and more.
We’ll dive into the particular matchups for Texas A&M and the Tigers more and more as the week goes on, but there’s a reason that the Aggies are so much closer in this line than many would have anticipated
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