Texas A&M has an offense that is, to put it mildly, in the midst of quite a few struggles right now. The Aggies, offensively, rank 93rd in the country in EPA/play according to collegefootballdata.com, just a year after having one of the deadliest and most explosive offenses in the country (well, at least up until the last couple of games).
Now, though, they are heading into a stretch of games against the best few defenses they've yet faced, starting this weekend against Tennessee. The prospective slugfest that this weekend's game will be helps explain some of why the line is so low for the 4-5 Aggies against the top-10 Volunteers, but it's not only the fact that this is set to be a low-scoring affair.
No, there's a crack in the Volunteers' defensive armor that fans ought to be aware of heading into this game against Tennessee— and it's not just the fact that their leader in sacks will be out with injury. While there's a lot to praise about this defense in a lot of ways, their one weakness is exactly what A&M can take advantage of.
Texas A&M can take advantage of sneakily mid Tennessee rush defense to pull off the upset
This is a Tennessee defense that ranks within the top ten in the country in a lot of categories— they're a really stout unit. For a program that has a head coach so associated with offensive firepower, it's been the defense that has carried them throughout the season.
And yet, despite that fact, there is an Achilles' Heel to this defense that the Aggies will have the ability to take advantage of. The more you dive into the numbers with the Volunteers, the more you see that their defense is actually pretty middle-of-the-road when it comes to defending the run.
It's not immediately evident, of course— Tennessee is 38th in rush yards allowed per game, after all, and 52nd in yards per carry allowed. Those aren't amazing numbers, but they are also not necessarily all that concerning.
The thing that jumps out, though, is that these are Tennessee's numbers while the Volunteers are also the number one team in the nation in sack rate. Since sacks count against rushing statistics in college football, you'd think that the Vols being able to generate so many negative rushing plays would make their rushing stats look a lot better!
A closer analysis of the numbers bears this out: when you filter out the sack numbers for every team, the Vols drop from 52nd in yards per carry allowed all the way down to 82nd in the nation, allowing nearly 5 yards per carry.
The advanced stats also demonstrate this in some significant ways. The EPA/Rush stats already filter out sacks, and by that metric, the Volunteers are only 49th in the nation against the run. Same goes for rushing success rate, where the Vols' defense is 52nd in the country. They are 82nd in rushing explosiveness allowed, and a shocking 131st in explosive run rate allowed— 17.27% of rush attempts against this Tennessee defense go for more than 10 yards.
Now, that is all well and good, but if the Aggies can't take advantage, then it's all for naught. A&M's offensive line has been improving week by week, so this is going to be one heck of a test— and this time, they're going to have to punch it in when they get the opportunity rather than stacking up yards with nothing to show for it.
I expect to see the Aggies come out with a similar game plan to what we saw against Arkansas: run the ball early and often, wear out the opposing defense, and take advantage of the home crowd to keep the ball away from your opponent.
The Volunteers have earned their top-10 ranking. But the thing that's so dangerous about the Aggies is that they are talented enough to take down any team in the nation if they're just able to put it together for 60 minutes— and if they are able to do that against the Volunteers, it's going to be on the back of an excellent game on the ground.
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