Texas A&M opens as surprisingly large favorite in CFP first round against Miami

This has been a day full of surprises for Texas A&M football, but this one is at least a good one.
Sep 27, 2025; College Station, Texas, USA; Texas A&M Aggies running back Rueben Owens II (4) runs the ball during the first half against the Auburn Tigers at Kyle Field. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images
Sep 27, 2025; College Station, Texas, USA; Texas A&M Aggies running back Rueben Owens II (4) runs the ball during the first half against the Auburn Tigers at Kyle Field. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images | Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

Texas A&M football is set to host the Miami Hurricanes in the first round of the College Football Playoff in a move that stunned a lot of Aggie fans, most of whom believed that the Aggies would be hosting the Alabama Crimson Tide in this home game at Kyle Field.

Instead, the Aggies will face Mario Cristobal's Miami team who, despite failing to make the conference championship game in the ACC, is clearly the best team from that conference. This is a real surprise for Texas A&M, and it only adds to what is likely going to be the toughest road to a national championship appearance— the Aggies, even if they win, will have to get through Ohio State and Georgia in the next two rounds.

The good news for the Aggies is that they are considered an early favorite in this game against the Miami Hurricanes. If things go according to plan, the Aggies should be in the second round of the College Football Playoff.

Texas A&M opens as early favorite over Miami Hurricanes in most-anticipated first-round CFP game

According to FanDuel, the Aggies open this game as a 3.5-point favorite. This is somewhat larger than a lot of people may expect, but it's pretty much close to a pick-'em on a neutral field, which is what current advanced statistical models would indicate.

The Aggies and Hurricanes are neck and neck in the most recent SP+ Ratings, so the home field is playing in strongly here. Texas A&M is seen as having a stronger offense, while the Hurricanes have a better defense.

The Aggies' money line is -176, while it's +146 for the Hurricanes. The total is 51.5, with -110 odds either way.

This is good news for the Aggies, but it will be interesting to see how odds might shift as injury news and other factors begin to play in over these next two weeks. The Aggies will have quite the task in front of them, but they can remain undefeated at Kyle Field if they play their best ball in this one.

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