Texas A&M has their tallest task yet this season in this road trip down to Tuscaloosa— possibly only matched by the bout in Death Valley, which, as we all remember, did not end very well for the Aggies at all. A&M is going to have to flip their fortunes in a big way to get a win in T-Town, because looking at the statistical comparison of these teams right now, there's not a lot of places where A&M can exploit an advantage.
There are, though, three distinct areas where the Aggies look like they can make something happen— and, fortunately enough, they are three areas that tend to be key to pulling off a big upset. Let's take a dive into the numbers (these statistics are adjusted for garbage time) and see where A&M may be able to find some edges against the Tide.
Three areas Texas A&M can take advantage of Alabama to pull off the upset
Win on third down
A&M needs to be able to press an advantage on third down against the Tide. A&M is still one of the best third down defenses in the nation, and that's a situation where the Tide have actually struggled pretty profoundly so far this year relative to the rest of their offense.
Bama is middle-of-the-road when it comes to third down conversion percentage, ranking 8th in the SEC by this metric and 47th in the nation. Meanwhile, the Aggies are one of the best third-down defenses in the country, getting opponents off of the field almost three out of four times they're in this situation— good for 11th in the country.
It will help the Aggies most to win on first and second down here— the Tide's improved run game this season means that they'll be more adept at picking up short yardage than they previously were. A&M's defense has to get off the field early and often here if they're going to have a chance in Tuscaloosa.
Find a way to create havoc
The Aggies have not had a great season when it comes to creating pressure against opposing quarterbacks, but their havoc rate has been pretty solid. Havoc rate is calculated as the rate of plays where a defense records a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception, or a batted pass.
A&M is 41st in the nation in havoc rate recorded by their defense, while Alabama is 105th in the nation in havoc rate allowed. The Aggies have a chance to create some chaos here, in other words; Keelon Russell is liable to hold onto the ball too long and sometimes force passes downfield into coverage.
If this defense can execute on the zone coverages that Mike Elko wants to run and confuse the Tide QB long enough for pressure to get home, it will be a huge win for the Ags. Keeping the Alabama offense in neutral will provide A&M's offense with a chance to make some plays.
Make scoring opportunities count
It's hard to find a lot of edges for the Aggies' offense against the Tide, but the one area where it looks promising for the Maroon and White is converting on scoring opportunities. A scoring opportunity, in this usage, refers to a drive that gains a first down inside the opponent's 40— in other words, a drive on which you should be coming away with some kind of points.
The Aggies are 31st in the nation in points per scoring opportunity, while the Tide defense is 88th in points per scoring opportunity allowed. That means that A&M needs to press this advantage by coming away with something every time they get one of these quality drives— no turnovers or missed kicks when you start working your way down the field.
Of course, the Tide are 24th in the nation in preventing these quality drives, and the Aggie offense is 75th in the nation at creating them. That lends even more urgency to converting on them when they do happen— the Ags simply cannot come away empty if they get an opportunity, like what happened in the opening drive against Missouri.
If the Aggies pull off these three things— winning the third down battle, creating havoc against Alabama's offense, and scoring on their opportunities— then they should end up with a chance to win. They'll still need a few bounces of the ball (a turnover or two would be awesome), but they need to consistently execute in these facets if they want an opportunity for an upset.
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