Texas A&M fans don't exactly feel great about their matchup with the Missouri Tigers up in Columbia this upcoming weekend after Mizzou just blew out a top-10 Florida squad this past week, but that sentiment isn't shared by everyone. The Aggies have opened as a mere 3.5-point underdog to the Tigers according to FanDuel, which is pretty puzzling given that Mizzou just destroyed the Gators by 28 points.
In fairness, the Gators came in as a 5-point favorite over Missouri in the previous game, and they ended up getting waxed. But that has now been factored in to whatever power models Vegas uses to create these lines, as has the Aggies' performance against Arkansas this past week.
Looking at the way both teams have played so far this year, too, it's hard to find exactly where the optimism is coming from for the Aggies' ability to keep things close in this one. A&M's biggest issue so far this year on defense is allowing explosive plays to their opponents through the air, and that, as a matter of fact, is exactly where the Tigers excel.
Texas A&M somehow emerges as 3.5-point underdog to Missouri ahead of Saturday's showdown
If there's a better predictor for a game to get sideways, I don't know of it. If Missouri can protect Austin Simmons and push the ball downfield through the air with regularity, things can get out of hand pretty quickly for the Aggies in this one— so why is A&M such a slight underdog here?
There are a number of reasons that jump to mind. This is a bit of a letdown spot for the Tigers after playing a top-10 team on homecoming weekend, as well as a lookahead with their trip to Ole Miss only a week out. With A&M coming in possessing far less of the fanfare than that which was expected in the preseason, there's a discernible opportunity for the Aggies to catch the Tigers sleeping a bit in this early game.
It should also be said that, along the same lines, the prove-it factor is now squarely on the Aggies' side. I had this game circled as a possible trap for A&M in the preseason, thinking that Missouri would have played all unranked teams up until this point— not anticipating that both Mississippi State and Florida would be in the top 25 at the time of Mizzou's game with them— and the Aggies would maybe be already starting to look forward to a huge showdown in Tuscaloosa.
Now, though, the Tigers are the ones riding high after their win over Florida, while the Aggies desperately need a big win to get their season back on track. There's no doubt, though, that Drinkwitz wants this win as bad as any on the schedule given how the Aggies have demolished his squad since Elko has been the head man in College Station.
A&M ran up 41 points on Mizzou in 2024, and 38 last year. It is tough to see them getting back to that mark this season, given their offensive challenges and Missouri's defensive ferocity, but stranger things have happened. Maybe this is the time where the Aggies really begin to show themselves to be the team that we all expected coming into the year— or maybe it will be further confirmation that this season will well and truly be a disappointment.
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