Texas A&M football haters will be quick to point out what they perceive as favorable conditions for the Aggies in the previous season, pointing to a schedule that they believe to be easier than most. Those complaints have already been soundly debunked— A&M's season-ending resume was the third-best of any team with 11 or more wins, and better than teams like Miami— but that won't stop the naysayers, of course.
The hard truth for detractors of the Aggies is that last year was remarkably unlucky for the Aggies in several facets— and, for Longhorn fans who look to tear down the maroon and white at any possible opportunity, it was a remarkably lucky year for Texas. If those things even out going forward, this could be a massive year for the Aggies as Mike Elko once again can lead A&M to the College Football Playoff.
Narrative-busting data reveals just how unlucky Texas A&M was in 2025 with implications for 2026
Bill Connelly's analysis of luck factors that played into last season has revealed some pretty surprising stuff about the Aggies and their rivals just west. It's widely known that turnovers are one of the greatest predictors of wins when it comes to basic statistics, and the Aggies turned out much worse there than they should have: the data shows that Texas A&M should have had a plus-three turnover margin at season's end, but the actually ended up with a minus-nine margin— good for third-worst luck in the country.
15That has a lot to do with pass breakups not turning into interceptions and fumbles taking bad bounces— Connelly notes that fumbles are essentially 50/50 plays over a long period of time, and teams roughly turn one out of every four PBUs into interceptions in large sample sizes. Texas A&M ended up with 43 PBUs and only three interceptions, while opponents had 33 PBUs against them and pulled in 14 interceptions. Texas, on the other hand, was fifteenth.
The Aggies weren't beneficiaries of close games, either, ranking 51st in Connelly's "second-order wins" metric— basically, how lucky were you to win a close game. Texas, on the other hand, was 25th.
There could have been some much more positive bounces of the ball for the Aggies last season than there were, and fans should anticipate a regression to the mean in 2026. Combined with the fact that the Aggies are returning a great rate of production for next year thanks to Elko's work in the portal, all signs are pointing towards another big step being taken next year.