Mike Elko has done nothing but slay demons this year in College Station, breaking long, embarrassing streaks that have plagued Aggie fans for far longer than they should have. He's got Texas A&M at 7-0 for the first time since the mid-90s, ranked in the top 3 in the AP Poll for the first time since 1975, given them a road win over a ranked team for the first time since 2014, and a road win over a top-10 non-conference team for the first time since 1979.
There is one streak left that the head man for Texas A&M needs to break this year: the losing skid in Baton Rouge. Some will say that the Aggies haven't won there in 30 years, which is true, but misleading: after 1994, LSU canceled the series because of A&M's dominance, and the two didn't play in Red Stick again until 2013.
Even so, losing six straight on the road against the Tigers, including at least one game that Texas A&M by rights should have won, is really an unacceptable outcome. The perceived gap between these two teams is not particularly wide (definitely not as wide as it was back in 2021), but A&M is currently a clearly better team than the Bayou Bengals. Will they be able to show it on Saturday?
Texas A&M vs LSU full preview and prediction: Aggies' biggest psychological test yet
That really is the question in this game. There's a certain psychological hurdle here that wasn't quite present in the Notre Dame game: while the long losing streak to ranked road teams was hanging over their head, that wasn't quite as oppressive as having lost this particular game to this particular team in this particular stadium ever since the A&M program has been a part of this conference.
You also have the revenge factor for the Tigers here, given that many fans of the Bayou Bengals feel as though there was some flukiness to last year's game. The QB change to Marcel Reed midgame obviously shifted how everything felt in that one, and— logical or not— it made some LSU fans feel as though it was not a fair fight.
That said, it's not as though the Tigers come in absolutely brimming with confidence. Despite winning on the road at Clemson in the first game of the season, things have been positively dreadful vibes-wise over in Baton Rouge for much of the year, and the feel is that the loss to Vanderbilt last week has this program teetering on the edge of chaos.
Brian Kelly is a coach that feels consistently at odds with the media and the fan base, and many are ready for him to be out the door. A victory for Texas A&M this weekend could hasten such a result, especially with road games at Alabama and Oklahoma still upcoming for the Tigers.
It's not just the intangibles: there are a lot of on-field factors that have given the Aggie faithful some sneaky confidence ahead of this game. LSU's starting left tackle will be out, and his backup has been pretty bad, as has the entire offensive line in general this year— so Cashius Howell could be in for a night full of pressures on Garrett Nussmeier.
Whit Weeks was listed as doubtful last night, and the sense coming out of Baton Rouge is that he will not be available either, which would aid the Aggie running game in a lot of facets. Even without Le'Veon Moss, A&M should be able to make some hay against the Tiger defense, though not to the degree that they did against the horrid Arkansas defense.
The test will be LSU's pass defense— and I mean that on both sides. The Tigers have yet to face receivers that are elite at creating separation like KC Concepcion and Mario Craver, while the Aggies are looking at the two best man-coverage corners that they've yet seen— outside of Notre Dame's Leonard Moore, that is.
LSU DC Blake Baker will no doubt play a lot of single-high safety with freshman phenom DJ Pickett and transfer star Mansoor Delane tasked to shut down the A&M receivers while he brings heavy pressure up front. This could serve to hurry up Marcel Reed and knock him off his rhythm early, leading him to miss when Concepcion and Craver get open against that press coverage.
The multifarious nature of this Aggie offense could still have answers, however: the running backs have proven adept at catching the ball out of the backfield, and the tight ends could also have a big day if unaccounted for in this scheme. With Weeks out, those TEs and RBs in the pass game could prove to be a big factor if Baker does indeed stick with his bread and butter on defense.
Of course, if this proves effective and Baker changes his tactics, then the Aggies can take advantage of zone coverage as well— Concepcion, Craver, and Bussey have all proven strong at finding the holes in that kind of defense. A&M will also be able to reestablish the line of scrimmage up front as well, creating some efficiency in the run game.
On the flip side, there are a lot more questions and a lot fewer answers for the Tigers when they're on offense. The pressure that Elko can create with this defense and the effectiveness they've had at defending the run presents quite the dilemma for LSU, who may just have to pick their poison. Garrett Nussmeier is a statue in the pocket, and is looking pretty beat up after the Vanderbilt game, so that bodes poorly for their deep passing attack, but their run game will provide no support absent a sudden change from how they've looked all year.
LSU will likely attempt some things in the quick screen game to neutralize the pass rush early on, getting the ball to Barion Brown and Zavion Thomas, which means Taurean York will be bearing a heavy schematic load to keep A&M's ducks in a row on that side of the ball. Funnily enough, this could bear a strong resemblance to A&M's defensive matchup with Auburn, except LSU's run game is far worse and there is no threat of the QB run.
I predicted an Aggie loss in my column earlier this week, but the more I think about this game, the harder it is to escape what a good matchup it is for A&M in several ways. The Aggies absolutely must take care of the football, but if they do that, they could be in great shape. Give me Texas A&M winning this one 27-24— Death Valley will have the Tigers playing their best possible game, but the Aggies will simply have too much going for them matchup-wise.