Ranking Week 2's most overrated and underrated teams in the AP Poll
Overrated: Texas Longhorns
If the AP Poll were a power ranking rather than... the strange mix of a power ranking and a resume ranking that it currently is, the Longhorns would have moved down after last night's game. Ohio State's postgame win expectancy was over 70%; in other words, if both teams played the exact same way they did last night, the Buckeyes win 7 out of 10 times.
That reality is reflected in the updated advanced statistical profiles: Texas fell in SP+ and FPI after the game, with the Buckeyes actually supplanting the Longhorns at no. 1 in the latter. If you want to plead resume ranking, SP+ actually gives that edge to Clemson right now.
Texas will be here until their inevitable first loss due to Poll Inertia, but they don't deserve the spot. It will all come out in the wash eventually, though.
Underrated: Oklahoma Sooners
I think the Sooners are being punished as an unintended side effect of what we saw from Michigan in week one. The Wolverines were clearly not preparing at all for Western Michigan— at least in comparison to how much they were getting ready for their first big matchup in week 2.
A one-score loss on the road to a team as talented as Michigan is no reason to drop them this far. Maybe the logic in some voters' minds is simply that the Sooners were initially ranked so highly because of a perceived improvement on the part of John Mateer, and this game exposed that that improvement has not happened— but even so, falling double-digit spots in the wake of that game seems excessive.
OU will have chances to make it up soon— especially with a trip to Georgia coming up in two weeks— but for now, this is probably too far of a drop for the Sooners.
Overrated: Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama has sort of hovered around a top-10 ranking here through the first two weeks, but there's not been a lot of evidence that they are actually that level of team. The Tide lazily dispatched with an ECU team that was not exactly an intimidating opponent, and struggled with Kentucky for a half before turning the burners on.
Maybe the Pirates and Wildcats will turn out to be better opponents than they currently seem, but it looks much more like DeBoer has a middle-of-the-road squad on his hands— albeit one with a lot of talent. The Tide have much more difficult proving grounds ahead, so we'll see if they are for real soon— but as of this moment, they're a bit too high.
Underrated: Miami
Is it too rich to say that the Hurricanes are underrated when they're up at 5th? Not when they've been playing the way that they have. Yes, there has not been elite-level competition for Miami, but they have looked exactly like a championship team should when playing those teams— something that fans ignored about Indiana for too long last year (and, conveniently, something Indiana has not done this year).
That's not to say we need to write off the rest of the season because the Hurricanes have it all sewn up— far from it. There's a reason we play the games. But the 'Canes look more like a no. 1 or no. 2 in the nation than a no. 5 right now.
Overrated: Texas Tech
Tech is coasting by on the coattails of last season at this point. The Red Raiders struggled with an average Oregon State team last week, and they looked patently unconvincing against Abilene Christian as well in week one.
As has been the case with Tech, they will not have a real opponent to test themselves against for quite some time. But they have really done nothing convincing up until this point for voters to keep them in the top 15.
Underrated: Ohio State
This is a situation where you can't have it both ways: if Texas is number one, then why did Ohio State get dropped five spots for a one-point road loss where they looked much more like the dominant team? Why not keep them up at no. 2 if the margin is that close?
The fact is that Ohio State is better than to be ranked as the no. 6 team in the nation, and we all know it. Once they've done enough penance and beaten up on the Purdues and Michigan States of the world, maybe voters will put them back up where they belong— but not yet, apparently.
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