Three numbers Texas A&M needs to reach to pull off a shocking upset over Alabama
Marcel Reed runs the ball more than ten times
The Tide boast one of the best rush defenses in the nation, but the way for this Aggie team to beat them is going to be in a grind-it-out fashion. Part of why the Aggies had so little success against Missouri was the refusal for Marcel to pull the ball down and run with it— him carrying the rock is where he is the most dynamic.
I'm not talking just about scrambles, either: we need to see Holmon Wiggins scheme up some designed runs for Marcel if the Aggies hope to be victorious in this game. That's the only hope the Aggies have of creating a consistent ground game against this kind of front.
A&M's most potent weapons so far in this season have been at the running back spot, but if the Aggies just try to run them into a brick wall down after down, we may be in for another game where the Ags get two first downs through three quarters. Marcel has to be a part of this run game to soften up the defense for Morrow, Edwards, and the rest.
The Aggies hold Alabama under 24 points
Alabama has scored fewer than 24 points on offense in only two games this season— however, that's their last two games. Georgia and Tennessee were effective at limiting the Alabama offense, and that's what eventually gave them a chance to win.
This is an extremely explosive unit that the Aggies are having to deal with, but A&M fans know well that explosivity can give and take away. Down the stretch of last season, A&M's explosive offense all but evaporated, and they couldn't get things done down to down.
The other side of the coin here is that, if Alabama exceeds 24 points, there's not a lot of reason to think that the Aggies can keep up. A&M has notched only 6 points in each of their previous two road games— an embarrassing mark, to be sure, but also something that bodes very poorly for their chances in any kind of shootout.
A&M holds Keelon Russell to three or fewer explosive passes
The Aggies have been better about putting a lid on explosives over the last few games, but they're going to have to batten down the hatches even more against Russell and this Alabama offense. The Tide generate an explosive play on 16.31% of their snaps, good for 15th in the country— the Aggies will have to limit that in a big way.
The pass game is where the Tide make their hay in explosives, and it's where the Aggies have had the most trouble at preventing them. This is an area of the game, then, that will prove to be key— can the Ags keep a lid on this Alabama offense and get home with their pressure, or will we see busted coverages again and again?
It's hard to say that the Aggies will completely shut down the explosive passing game, but if they allow three or fewer, they'll be in great shape. Georgia allowed four to the Tide, while Tennessee allowed only one: that's the company that A&M needs to keep if they want to pull off this upset.
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