Three reasons Texas A&M pulls off the upset of their season over top-10 Tennessee
Marcel Reed has his best day yet running the ball
The Aggie quarterback is coming off of his best performance of the year from a process standpoint, but it is not going to be his arm that wins the game for the Aggies. Tennessee is one of the best pass defenses in the country, and they specialize in exactly what Marcel has trouble with: sitting in zone-heavy looks and making you work your way down the field with short completions.
Where they struggle has been stopping running quarterbacks. As was pointed out on the fantastic Tres Amigos podcast, they were extremely susceptible to the legs of LaNorris Sellers in the game against South Carolina, and Marcel Reed should be able to find similar success when he scrambles.
That is going to require him to step up in the pocket and not bail backwards, though, something he is growing in but not yet where he needs to be. If he does, though, then this is going to be a good day on the ground for him, and he'll keep more than one drive alive with his electric running ability.
KJ Edwards notches at least three explosive runs
The Volunteers are, statistically speaking, extremely susceptible to big runs this year, and the guy the Aggies need to get going in that department is no. 0. It was Rueben Owens who found the big runs against South Carolina last Saturday, but if KJ Edwards had taken those handoffs, they probably would have turned into touchdowns.
Edwards' juice and high-level speed make him a home-run threat whenever he touches the ball, and that has to strike fear into the hearts of the Vols. He was dealing with an illness against South Carolina, but this may be the game where he finally puts it all together and puts up the kind of stat line that would raise the eyebrows of any onlooker.
I think we see KJ get loose into the secondary more than a few times in this one, and I'm predicting he racks up at least three big runs, with at least one of those going for a touchdown. A&M has struggled to generate big plays and get into the end zone, but if someone's going to get it done, KJ is the prime candidate.
The Aggies turn over the Volunteers twice
The Vols are a plus-six in turnover margin so far this year, which has definitely helped them out in some big wins this season. However, in road games, they are dead even in turnover margin; they gained two against Georrgai Tech, they lost two against Arkansas, and they broke even against South Carolina.
Against this Aggie team in Kyle Field, though, it will be a different story. I foresee a rapidly-improving Texas A&M defense getting some takeaways against a Tennessee offense that will feel the pressure and the noise as a low-scoring game slogs on.
Aggie fans well remember how some key second-half turnovers in the blackout game from two years ago ended up being pretty decisive for A&M's big victory over a top-10 LSU. I think we see something very similar this season— give me the Aggies' defense notching two turnovers against the Vols.
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