Three reasons why Texas A&M will lose at Missouri this Saturday

A misleading metric, a new wrinkle on offense and bottled-up ground game could be to the demise of Aggie Nation this weekend.
Louisiana v Missouri
Louisiana v Missouri | Ed Zurga/GettyImages
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Eight weeks up, eight weeks down. I have been tasked with finding the reasons why Texas A&M will lose its upcoming match, and as we all know, I've yet to hit the marker. But here we are in November — the longest month of the regular season for a team that not only finds itself ranked but also well in-line to compete for both a conference and national championship. The Aggies still have the sour taste of last season's collapse fresh on their tongues, but that doesn't mean Missouri will just go away without a fight.

We know how great the Tiger faithful feel about their odds in this matchup, so let's give it another shot and see if we can find three reasons for Texas A&M to lose its first game of the regular season on Saturday.

Ahmad Hardy exposes what's a very susceptible Texas A&M ground game

On paper, Texas A&M has one of the better run defenses in the nation — holding teams to 118.5 yards per game on just 3.87 yards per carry. What the paper forgets to include, however, is that sack yardage is taken into account for those rushing totals. When you take away the 32 total sacks this group has on the season and the 248 yards associated with it, Texas A&M's true rushing totals are closer to 150 yards per game and 5.6 yards per carry — the latter being one of the five-worst numbers in the sport.

This is all music to Ahmad Hardy's ears — one of the best tailbacks in the nation and one that's averaging over 117 yards per game on 5.89 yards per carry. He has 25 runs of 10-plus yards, tied for seventh in the country, and he'll be up against an Aggie defensive front that's allowed 35 such runs this season. Hardy will be the primary threat with the ball in his hands, even more so now that his two-way quarterback Beau Pribula is sidelined, and that could pave the way to a long day for this Texas A&M defense.

If Hardy is churning out six-yard runs and popping the occasional explosive, that will play a huge role in Missouri controlling the style of this football game and keeping the Texas A&M offense on the sideline — a position no one in Aggie Nation wants to be in this weekend.

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