Trending down: Texas
There's been a definite vibe shift around what's going on in Austin, which is surprising given some of the hype that's still coming from certain corners. I think it mostly has to do with the fact that there's an increased level of skepticism around Arch Manning now that we've all grown used to the concept of a quarterback with that last name, as well as the offensive line.
Replacing as many OL starters as the Horns are set to do is usually a great recipe for taking a step back in terms of results. Same goes for signal caller, of course, as well as defensive backs. The Longhorns are seeing a significant amount of turnover at all of those key positions.
The week one matchup against Ohio State in Columbus will be a heck of a measuring stick. Both teams will look quite different than the pair that matched up when Texas got bodied in the national semifinal last year, but breaking in all those new starters on the road in an environment like the Horseshoe against a team as talented as OSU is a tall task.
Add to that the back-to-back SEC road trip hurdle (though the games come against Kentucky and Mississippi State, possibly the two worst teams in the conference this year) and a game at Georgia, Texas could be a top-10 team this year and only end up with 9 wins. Given that I'm not sure they're even a top-10 team, 8 is not out of the question either.